First, the good news: about 450,000 Americans are expected to be hired as seasonal workers for the holiday season. But then the bad, because that level of seasonal hiring is a 2.5% drop compared to last year.
Why the downslope?
With the economy always seeming teeter in recent years on the precipice of a recession, retailers say they're likely to rely on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than hiring more seasonal employees.
The new data comes from Challenger, Gray and Christmas. “That resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest Retailers,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and Chief Revenue Officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Prices are still high, tariffs continue to work through supply chains, and Retailers are leaning on automation, existing associates, and on-demand pools before hiring net-new seasonal workers. It’s more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021."
Consumer spending remains strong, and unemployment high, but many say they're hedging their bets as prices continue to surge amid gas hikes and inflation driven by the war in Iran.
Of course, that doesn't mean it'll be impossible for college students or others to land a seasonal job.
Some big employers, such as Spirit Halloween and Michaels, have announced significant seasonal hiring pushes, while others like Amazon and Bath & Body Works have not yet disclosed their plans.
So, there will be jobs but they will be competitive as the total number of holiday staff hired this season is anticipated to fall short of previous years.
"Several major Retailers that have historically issued early hiring targets have again gone quiet," the study found, adding that Amazon typically announces it will hire 250,000 workers in mid-October. Bath & Body Works usually hires about 30,000+ associates and "normally announces" in early September.
Target has hired about 100,000 for the past several years, and Kohl’s 90,000 for most of the past decade.
"So far, none have publicly disclosed 2026 headcount figures, a continuation of the trend that emerged in 2024 as Retailers shifted toward flexible, on-demand staffing models," Challenger noted.
