BOSTON (WEEI.com) -- Make no mistake about it, Dave Dombrowski is gambling. And as we sit here, the cards aren't exactly trending in the right direction.
The Red Sox president of baseball operations has constructed arguably the most talented roster in the game, offering a fair level of certainty at almost every spot. Almost. The bullpen is becoming Dombrowski's pretty much one and only leap of faith.
This reality isn't a surprise. As the offseason unfolded, with Dombrowski's winter meetings proclamations serving as a jumping-off point, it became clear the likelihood of a Craig Kimbrel reunion was very slim. And then there was the less-than-extravagant offer to Joe Kelly. And finally came word of how hesitant the Red Sox were to come close on free-agent relief candidates.
They had Matt Barnes. They had Ryan Brasier. They had Steven Wright. And they had Tyler Thornburg. Along with Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, Brandon Workman and a slew of potential, Dombrowski perceived it as enough.
"I would have to say it was a combination of factors," Dombrowski recently told WEEI.com when asked about how he arrived at his bullpen blueprint heading into this season. "We just kind of looked at different alternatives and thought we would be willing to go to some places on some individuals, but we also felt comfortable with the guys we had internally. We had other priorities, which was signing (Nathan) Eovaldi. At that point, as far as pitching was concerned, it was the priority. We just felt internal we would have enough guys."
With almost exactly two weeks until Opening Day, Barnes has pitched twice in Grapefruit League action; Brasier threw his first live batting practice Wednesday after being sidelined due to an infected toe. Thornburg has been unimpressive with mid-90s velocity, and Wright wasn't going to be ready for the opener even if he wasn't suspended for 80 games.
Workman's velocity and effectiveness have taken a turn for the worse over the last week or so, and thanks to the birth of his daughter, Hembree hasn't pitched in game action yet.
Right now this sure feels a lot like 2015, when the Red Sox tried to replace their ace (Jon Lester) with the potential of five aces (Wade Miley, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Kelly, Justin Masterson), or 2017's strategy of hoping everybody in the lineup got a little better in lieu of having David Ortiz. Projecting can be a dangerous thing, as the Sox found out in both those cases.
But Dombrowski dug in throughout the offseason, and evidently did not lose over the contracts given to the likes of David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton, and Kelly.
"I was not surprised by it, really," he said regarding the relief-pitching market. "There is always a deal or two that surprises you. There are some instances where somebody signs at a really good price and then somebody spends more than they should. But that's what makes the free-agency market go round. We just felt as far the investments were concerned with what we were willing to do, we felt more comfortable signing Eovaldi and using guys we had."
Though Dombrowski has ruled out any more reliever signings, there is always the possibility he swings a trade. And with the Sox dangling one of their three catchers, such a one-for-one swap could make some sense. The problem is the same as it has been throughout the offseason: The slow free-agent market has made trades appreciably more difficult.
The good news is that one of the last free-agent catchers, Martin Maldonado, has finally come off the board on a one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals, opening the door for some increased interest from those who might need backstop help. The bad news is that the Red Sox aren't the only ones trying to deal a catcher: The Washington Nationals, for example, are actively shopping defensive ace Pedro Severino.
And then there is not allocating too much money because of luxury-tax concerns and impending contract stickiness with the likes of Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts and Porcello.
"Right now there are just a lot of things internally, externally, looking at a lot of different things and juggling on a consistent basis," Dombrowski said. "It does come into play, the future, based upon the guys we have internally and what we're looking to do. But I also can't tell you the right opportunities maybe you don't react to."
So how could this original plan actually work?
There is still some time to have the brunt of the Red Sox bullpen hit the ground running when March 28 comes around. There are some interesting arms in camp that could contribute, such as Colten Brewer, Bobby Poyner, Darwinzon Hernandez, Zach Putnam and Marcus Walden. And, of course, another wave of options promise to be around the corner a few months now.
Brad Ziegler. Addison Reed. Eovaldi.
You can get valuable bullpen pieces heading into the non-waiver trade deadline. That is one thing that hasn't changed in this new age of baseball business.
"When you look at the sheer number of relievers most clubs have, usually it's an area that can be addressed," Dombrowski noted. "I can't answer specifically because you don't know what will be taking place and who will be in contention, but normally it's an area you can address. Between middle and back-end, you're talking three or four guys per club and then you have 29 other clubs, then you say half of them is not in contention, just overall that's an area you can do something with."
The Red Sox clearly had a plan. It is coming up on time to see if it was a good one or not.
By Rob Bradford