The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx are set to meet in a decisive Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals, with the winner advancing to face the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals on Thursday. After a high-scoring Game 4, where the Sun tied the series 2-2, the Lynx are back home and favored by -4.5 points. The total for tonight’s game opened at 149.5 but money coming in on the over has pushed this line up to 152.5 at BetMGM.
Lynx -4.5 (-115)
Even though the Lynx fell short in Game 4, they remain the favorite for good reason. Napheesa Collier, who had a slow start to the series, has emerged as the best player on the floor over the last two games. She scored 29 points in Game 4 and single-handedly kept Minnesota competitive despite poor shooting from her supporting cast. The other four Lynx starters shot a combined 11-of-30 from the field—well below their typical performance. It’s often said that role players perform better on their home floor, which is what I expect will be the case for the Lynx tonight.
On the defensive end, Minnesota didn’t look like its usual self in Game 4, allowing the Sun to shoot an impressive 54% from the field and 53% from beyond the arc. However, that kind of offensive efficiency from Connecticut will be hard to replicate, particularly as the series shifts back to the Target Center. Minnesota has been much more defensively sound at home, allowing opponents to shoot just 44.9% in its four home playoff games this season. With a strong home-court advantage and one of the best defenses all season, I expect the Lynx to lock in on that side of the ball, giving them a great chance to cover the -4.5 spread and advance to the Finals.
Under 152.5 points (-115)
While Game 4 was a high-scoring affair with 174 total points, I expect a much lower-scoring game tonight. I just mentioned that not only do I expect the Sun’s offense to regress a bit, but I like the Lynx’s defensive intensity to ramp up at home. Games 1 & 2 of this series - played in Minnesota - finished with a total of 143 and 147, respectively, and the Lynx held the Sun to under 41% shooting in both games.
With each team leaning heavily on their defense throughout the entire regular season, and with the stakes at their highest in a do-or-die Game 5, a slower pace and more defensive emphasis is expected, which is why I like the under 152.5.
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