Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Playoff Winners, and I am chomping at the bit to bet the CFP quarterfinals. We went 3-2 on our bets in the first round, and I think there’s a chance that we can go 5-0 with our picks this week! Now, enough counting our winnings before the bets have cashed, and let's get into the picks.
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State -11.5 vs. Boise State
This is a simple bet for me. Boise State can only win this game if they get multiple turnovers and Ashton Jeanty has to take complete control of the game. Unfortunately, I don’t see this narrow victory path happening for the Broncos.
I expect Abdul Carter and Penn State's defense to load the box to stop Jeanty and force Maddux Madsen to beat them. Carter and his crew will shut down the Broncos' offense. On the flip side, I expect Penn State to run all over the Broncos’ defense. Penn State’s OL really impressed me with how they knocked Oregon’s DL off the ball and ran all over them in the Big Ten Championship game. It’s what kept them in the game. Now, they face a worse Boise State DL. This could be a mauling.
I wish I thought that Boise State could repeat history and become the Cinderella story of this college football playoffs. Unfortunately, I’m a realist.
Penn State -11.5.
Fiesta Bowl Part 2: Under 52
After I finished my first paragraph, I realized that this Fiesta Bowl needed to be a double dipper for me with the under! I expect both teams to try to establish the run game early. Once Penn State gets out to a two-score lead, I expect them to sit on the lead and not tip anything extra for their next opponent. This is exactly what they did against SMU.
Maddux Madsen and Boise State’s WRs aren’t skilled enough to consistently get open against this Penn State secondary if they fall behind quickly. I expect multiple three and outs from the Broncos offensively. Sorry Boise State, I’m really against you on New Years Eve.
Under 52.
Rose Bowl Double Dip: Oregon +2.5 vs. Ohio State & Over 54.5
Another College Football Playoff double dipper; double dipping is why I keep getting kicked out of parties. First, let’s talk about the over. Last time these two teams played they combined for 63 points, and both teams left points on the table. Oregon had to settle for a late FG in the redzone. Will Howard slid and time ran out, costing the Buckeyes an opportunity to win the game with a FG. Last game, these teams went over this total easily and left a lot of meat on the bone. I expect both teams to take advantage of their opportunities and push this game over 54.5 points.
Second, this game will be determined by the Ohio State OL and the Oregon DL. Last game, aside from two big runs, the Ducks shut down the run game of the Buckeyes. That was without Oregon’s best DL Jordan Burch and that was against Ohio State’s fully healthy OL. Since then, Ohio State has lost two left tackles and lost their starting center Seth McLaughlin for the season. For the Ducks, Jordan Burch is back and sounds to be healthier than ever. If Oregon’s DL can come up with crucial stops against the Buckeyes' offense just like they did in October, I expect to see Oregon advancing to the Cotton Bowl. They are the #1 team in the country for a reason.
Rose Bowl: Oregon +2.5 and over 54.5.
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame +3 vs. Georgia
This bet is simply because Carson Beck isn’t playing for Georgia. Nick Saban can praise Gunner Stockton all he wants, but Stockton wasn’t asked to do much in the SEC Championship game and he still threw a horrible INT. It might have been the worst interception of the championship weekend.
Now, Stockton is going to face Notre Dame, one of the top defenses in the country, in his first playoff start. I expect the Fighting Irish to load the box to stop the run and make Stockton prove that he can beat them. Notre Dame’s defensive strength is in their secondary and Georgia’s offensive weakness is in their WR room. If I were Notre Dame, I’d force the Bulldogs to throw the ball all game long. Then, I’d get ready to prepare for Penn State because I’d expect to be leaving the Sugar Bowl with a victory. Go Shane Gillis and go Notre Dame!
Notre Dame +3.
Finale
Our first weekend betting the College Football Playoff went extremely well for us and I expect this weekend to go even better! Once the big-time games started, I hit my peak and got hotter than hot. I don’t expect to cool off any time soon, either!
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