Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners, and boy did we have a good CFP quarterfinal round. SPOILER ALERT! We killed it this weekend and made a ton of money going 4-1. Now, let’s jump into the picks.
WINNERS
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State 31, Boise State 14
My Picks: Penn State -11.5, Under 52
I expect Abdul Carter and Penn State's defense to load the box to stop Jeanty and force Maddux Madsen to beat them. Carter and his crew will shut down the Broncos' offense. On the flip side, I expect Penn State to run all over the Broncos’ defense. Penn State’s OL really impressed me with how they knocked Oregon’s DL off the ball and ran all over them in the Big 10 Championship game. It’s what kept them in the game. Now, they face a worse Boise State DL. This could be a mauling.
Maddux Madsen and Boise State’s WRs aren’t skilled enough to consistently get open against this Penn State secondary if they fall behind quickly. I expect multiple three and outs from the Broncos offensively. Sorry Boise State, I’m really against you on New Years Eve.
I told you exactly what would happen in this game when I gave you my New Years Eve double dipper! Penn State would jump out to an early lead and cruise to an easy cover. I didn’t think that Boise State’s offense had enough firepower to keep up with the Nittany Lions and I was right. Now that being said, Maddux Madsen performed much better than I expected. Yes, he threw three interceptions, but two of those picks happened late as the Broncos were taking chances to get back in the game. I was impressed with how well the Boise State offense performed, but I still hit both of my bets, and that’s all anyone should remember.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21
My Pick: Over 54.5
Another college football playoff double dipper; double dipping is why I keep getting kicked out of parties. First, let’s talk about the over. Last time these two teams played they combined for 63 points, and both teams left points on the table. Oregon had to settle for a late FG in the redzone. Will Howard slid and time ran out, costing the Buckeyes an opportunity to win the game with a FG. Last game, these teams went over this total easily and left a lot of meat on the bone. I expect both teams to take advantage of their opportunities and push this game over 54.5 points.
While Oregon being blown out was shocking, this game going over never really felt in doubt. I mean, shoot, there was a point in time where I felt like Ohio State might cover this over by themselves. Thankfully, Oregon got their offense together just enough to score 21 points and push this game over the total. This bet was never really a sweat and it might be time to bet every over in a big game like this, with two strong offenses.
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame 23, Georgia 10
My Pick: Notre Dame +3
Now, Stockton is going to face Notre Dame, one of the top defenses in the country, in his first playoff start. I expect the Fighting Irish to load the box to stop the run and make Stockton prove that he can beat them. Notre Dame’s defensive strength is in their secondary and Georgia’s offensive weakness is in their WR room. If I were Notre Dame, I’d force the Bulldogs to throw the ball all game long. Then, I’d get ready to prepare for Penn State because I’d expect to be leaving the Sugar Bowl with a victory. Go Shane Gillis and Go Notre Dame!
It wasn’t how we drew it up but a win is a win! Notre Dame’s defense and special teams won this game for the Fighting Irish. A huge strip sack to end the first half and a kick return to start the second won the game for Notre Dame. Georgia’s offense looked bad, unable to move the ball barring an explosive play in the drive. This was a gritty defensive battle. Fortunately for us, the team we bet on won the turnover battle and won the game.
LOSERS
Rose Bowl: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21
My Pick: Oregon +2.5
Second, this game will be determined by the Ohio State OL and the Oregon DL. Last game, aside from two big runs, the Ducks shut down the run game of the Buckeyes. That was without Oregon’s best DL Jordan Burch and that was against Ohio State’s fully healthy OL. Since then, Ohio State has lost two left tackles and lost their starting center Seth McLaughlin for the season. For the Ducks, Jordan Burch is back and sounds to be healthier than ever. If Oregon’s DL can come up with crucial stops against the Buckeyes' offense just like they did in October, I expect to see Oregon advancing to the Cotton Bowl. They are the #1 team in the country for a reason.
Boy, was I wrong about how close this game would be! Ohio State came out and just punked Oregon from the first snap. This game was over in the first half. Ohio State jumped out to a 34-0 lead before Oregon even found the endzone. The Buckeyes defense absolutely dominated Oregon’s offense, holding the Ducks to -23 rushing yards. How crazy is that rushing total! -23 rushing yards is embarrassing! Offensively, no one could stop Jeremiah Smith. The freshman WR had seven catches for 187 yards and two TDs. This was just an old fashioned butt-kicking and Ohio State looks like the eventual Champion in college football this season.
Conclusion
Another playoff week, another big week for Big Will Bets’ pocketbook. We went 4-1 and honestly, it was too easy. None of our bets were sweaty. I was clearly on the right side of each bet except for one, but who cares, because we dominated the books in the other four bets. Congratulations to me for my wins, and congratulations to you for knowing to tail me!