Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners, and boy, was this a rough weekend! Drew Allar threw away a win for us, Ohio State hurt themselves with penalties to keep themselves out of the endzone early, and the dang Dirty Bubble kidnapped Jim Harbaugh in the middle of the game. If none of those three things happen, maybe we win those bets. But you know what they say, when you get captured by the Dirty Bubble, you’re sure to take a tumble. Unfortunately, we need to jump into the picks.
WINNERS
Ohio State 28, Texas 14 (My Pick: Ohio State -6)
I think the Buckeyes limit the explosive plays from the Longhorns offense and consistently get them off the field. I don’t care how strong this Texas defense is, if they are left on the field too long they will get tired. That was ASU’s gameplan and it almost worked. Ohio State wins and they cover.
The Buckeyes did a great job of making Texas earn it when they had scoring drives. The Longhorns had to go the length of the field if they wanted to find the endzone because the Buckeye’s defense took away any big play possibilities. Then, when it mattered most, Ohio State’s defense came up huge on back to back plays. First, Caleb Downs blew up the toss play that eventually led to a four yard loss. Then, Jack Sawyer had the long strip sack touchdown run to seal the game for the Buckeyes. I thought the Ohio State offense would be more effective. Thank goodness I was right about their defense playing lights-out.
LOSERS
Notre Dame 27, Penn State 24 (My Pick: Penn State +2)
In this matchup, I think both teams are evenly matched. Both teams have truly elite defenses. Both teams have a strong OL and stable of running backs that make their run game elite. The true separation in this game is at the QB position. Riley Leonard doesn’t throw the ball well. Drew Allar does. I like Penn State in this one, and while I’m not officially giving it out, I sprinkled some money on their money line as well.
Hand up, I apologize, I was wrong. While Riley Leonard didn’t look other-worldly, Drew Allar looked bad. He missed on some difficult throws. He made bad decisions with the football. Allar flat out struggled in this game. His interception in the final seconds of the game basically ended Penn State’s title aspirations. Now was that loss all on Allar? No. Penn State’s wideouts didn’t catch a ball all game long and were completely blanketed by Notre Dame’s secondary. Defensively, PSU couldn’t get a big stop in critical moments. Hats off to Notre Dame. Congrats on a hard fought victory.
Ohio State 14, Texas 7 First Half (My Pick: Over 27.5 First Half)
Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is in his bag right now, designing plays so well that defenses are getting lost and allowing Jeremiah Smith to run wide open. Smith is hard enough to guard when DBs are in the correct spot; now they have to sift through all of the misdirection and cover Smith. They have no shot. The Buckeyes might cover this number by themselves, but I do expect Sark and Texas to help us out and get one score in the half. I love the first half over.
I took the over in the first half of this game, and unfortunately we came up 6.5 points short. Ohio State came out strong but continued to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Penalty after penalty killed multiple drives for the Buckeyes and killed any momentum that they had earned. Texas did their part. They scored a late TD and gave up an even later TD. The Buckeyes just came up short and so did we.
Texans 32, Chargers 12 (My Pick: Chargers -3)
The Chargers, while not true Super Bowl contenders, are peaking at the right time, while the Texans seem to be dropping off a cliff. Seems like an easy bet. I expect to see the Chargers in the divisional round.
Apparently that cliff that the Texans fell off had a short ledge, because they came out and smacked the Chargers. The game couldn’t have started better for LA, with two quick scores. The problem was that they got only two FGs. Being up 14-0 is a lot different than being up 6-0. After that, the Texans dominated this game. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert 4 times. He was intercepted only 3 times in the regular season, and was constantly getting pressure on Herbert. Houston’s offense didn’t look great, but they got the job done finding the endzone multiple times. A bad loss for me. I still blame the stupid Dirty Bubble for capturing Harbaugh and costing us the game!
Rams 27, Vikings 9 (My Pick: Vikings -1.5)
Am I a sucker? What the heck is with this line? Yes, the last time we watched the Vikings, they were getting manhandled by the Lions, but they are still 14-3. That’s freaking impressive!
Yup, I’m a sucker. Sam Darnold looked bad. He took too many sacks and turned the ball over in multiple key spots. The Rams look like they’ve finally awakened and returned to the way they were performing before December. Sorry Vikings fans, at least you know the truth about Darnold before you paid him.
Grande Finale
Look, it wasn't our week, unfortunately. A couple of close plays could have gone our way but for one reason or another they didn’t. Just means we are due for next week. See you all then!