Dan Karpuc: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Over 57.5 Receiving Yards vs. Ravens (-110, BetMGM)
As explained fully in my weekly NFL Player Prop Picks article, this was the first bet I made for the season opener. Not only will Kelce be playing with a chip on his shoulder due to the rumors swirling around his breakup with Taylor Swift, but he’s crushed the Ravens throughout his career. In the AFC Championship Game, he caught 11 of 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown and has recorded 116, 109, 87, 89, 77 and 73 receiving yards in six career matchups against Baltimore. Averaging 7.3 catches on 8.3 targets for 91.8 yards in those games, this has obvious value. With newcomer Hollywood Brown out, Kelce and Rashee Rice should be Patrick Mahomes’ top targets and if the Ravens try to erase Kansas City’s run game like Roquan Smith hinted, Kelce could realistically be in store for 12-to-15 targets. That should be more than enough for him to easily go over this number.
Lucy Burdge: Padres 2B Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Tigers (+105, BetMGM)
Arraez has hit this in his last two games, in three of his last four games and in five of his last seven. And against Casey Mize he has three singles and Arraez is third in the league in hits behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. So I think he can go over on this tonight.
Matt Horner: Rangers F5 / Full Game ML Parlay vs. Angels (+110, DraftKings)
RHP Jack Kochanowicz will be getting the baseball tonight for Los Angeles, and he is due for some regression moving forward. He owns a 4.96 ERA, with a 5.54 xERA and 4.72 xFIP, showing just how awful he has actually been. He’s a replacement-level pitcher with what he has shown, he doesn’t strike out anyone with an extremely small 3.31 K/9 rate, and his one saving grace to this point has been a huge 59.3% ground ball rate. I don’t expect him to have a lot of success here.
RHP Jack Kochanowicz will be getting the baseball tonight for Los Angeles, and he is due for some regression moving forward. He owns a 4.96 ERA, with a 5.54 xERA and 4.72 xFIP, showing just how awful he has actually been. He’s a replacement-level pitcher with what he has shown, he doesn’t strike out anyone with an extremely small 3.31 K/9 rate, and his one saving grace to this point has been a huge 59.3% ground ball rate. I don’t expect him to have a lot of success here.
RHP Jack Kochanowicz will be getting the baseball tonight for Los Angeles, and he is due for some regression moving forward. He owns a 4.96 ERA, with a 5.54 xERA and 4.72 xFIP, showing just how awful he has actually been. He’s a replacement-level pitcher with what he has shown, he doesn’t strike out anyone with an extremely small 3.31 K/9 rate, and his one saving grace to this point has been a huge 59.3% ground ball rate. I don’t expect him to have a lot of success here.
Countering him will be LHP Cody Bradford, who represents a substantial starting pitcher advantage for Texas. While he is due for a bit of regression from his 3.21 ERA, owning a 3.46 xERA and 3.93 xFIP, he still is a far better pitcher than Kochanowicz. He’s shown incredible command on his pitches, with a 1.29 BB/9 rate to this point, while keeping his strikeouts around MLB average (8.36 K/9). His very low .232 BABIP is a bit concerning, but overall, he has been quite good.
In addition to a large starting advantage for the Rangers, L.A. will be in an unfavorable spot here. They traveled overnight to Texas after a 10-game homestand, in which they won consecutive series against the Yankees and A’s. Now is a great time to fade them.