The 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year race has taken yet another turn. The carousel of odds-on favorites has continued to turn and two new names are leading now. Preseason favorite Zach Edey of the Memphis Grizzlies and Alexandre Sarr of the Washington Wizards are +175 favorites at BetMGM. One player has returned to the starting lineup for a thriving Western Conference team after dealing with injuries and foul trouble while the other has started consistently for a bottom of the barrel Eastern Conference squad. Let’s go over the field to determine where the best place to put your money is.
The Grizzlies’ Edey has had a few very strong performances but his rank among this year’s crop of rookies is a little confusing at this point. He can’t control injuries but has been played out of the rotation for defensive lapses on several occasions despite having an impressive defensive rating (108.0). He hasn’t won a Rookie of the Month Award yet this season and is enduring his worst month of the season so far with averages just 6.0 points and 5.6 rebounds through five games in January. Edey can prove that he belongs with some consistent play and health, but he hasn’t played in more than eight games in a month yet this season. He might be ineligible to win if he doesn’t avoid another significant injury layoff.
Alex Sarr made waves for his underwhelming Summer League play after being selected with the second overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft but has progressed nicely. He won the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month Award in December and has taken ownership of the Washington Wizards’ starting center spot with averages of 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.6 blocks per contest. Sarr isn’t winning but he is making impactful plays on both ends as a consistent part of his team’s rotation. Sarr is on the rise and has recorded three of his five career double-doubles in January. It’s hard to see another Eastern Conference rookie challenging him at this point, and he can use that to his advantage.
The dark horse worth taking a look at is the Grizzlies’ Jaylen Wells (+550). Wells leads all rookies in total points (455) and has unexpectedly become his team’s go-to lockdown perimeter stoppers. He’s legitimately given elite scorers like Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, and others a hard time on defense while averaging 11.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from long range. Wells lost out to Yves Missi in December after winning Western Conference Rookie of the Month in November, but isn’t going anywhere. He’s been a true staple for a top team that’s been limited by injuries all season. There’s no question that he’s been more impactful than Edey as a starter in 34 of the 39 games he’s appeared in.
The New Orleans Pelicans’ Missi is +800 while the San Antonio Spurs’ Stephon Castle has slid from +125 to +1000. There’s a long way to go, but both will have difficult paths to climb back up the ladder.
Best Bet: Jaylen Wells (+550, BetMGM)
It’s clear that this will be the least exciting Rookie of the Year race since Malcolm Brogdon won in 2017, but there’s plenty of intrigue in the fact that the field is wide open. No player's pure counting stats appear likely to push them over the edge, so the player affecting winning basketball at the highest level should get the nod. Edey seems certain to fade in matchups where he plays less than 20 minutes because of matchups and Sarr will split time down the middle with Valanciunas while Wells makes winning plays on both sides of the ball while eclipsing 30 minutes on a nightly basis. Take the value here in a race where no player is a sure thing.
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