With a loaded NBA slate on November 15, the opportunities for profitable prop bets are plentiful. From rising stars to seasoned veterans, several players find themselves in favorable spots to shine tonight. Whether it’s Jalen Johnson taking advantage of a soft Wizards frontcourt, Tyrese Haliburton dishing dimes against a depleted Heat defense, or Brandon Ingram shouldering a massive workload for the Pelicans, I've identified the top value plays for you to target. Let’s dive into the best prop bets for tonight’s action and uncover where the edges lie.
Hawks PF Jalen Johnson Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Wizards (-130, FanDuel)
The Wizards have allowed an NBA-high 13.3 rebounds and 3rd-most 5.6 assists per game to opposing power forwards. In two games against Washington so far this season, Johnson has averaged 14.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists and smashed this number in both games. Not only that, but he just sniffed his upside, since he averaged 22.0 rebounding chances and 9.0 potential dimes per contest. Trae Young is back for Atlanta tonight, but this is still mispriced, in my opinion. Of any player in the entire NBA that has played Washington this year, only Nikola Jokic has averaged more touches than Johnson (99.3). Since he recorded 19 and then 21 rebounds + assists in those first two meetings, I love this play and am comforted by the fact that he’s gone over this mark in seven of his last nine starts overall heading into this one.
Suns C Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 Rebounds vs. Thunder (-128, FanDuel)
Since Chet Holmgren got injured and Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t ready to make his OKC debut, the Thunder are going to play extremely small once again against the Suns tonight. Nurkic has been dealing with a nagging injury of his own and is listed as questionable, but if he does indeed play, he’s in an amazing spot to dominate the glass. Averaging 12.7 rebounds (3rd-most in NBA) on 20.2 potential rebounds (4th-most in NBA) in November, Nurkic has been thriving in that regard heading into this easy matchup and he has a gigantic size and girth advantage in this matchup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be OKC’s tallest starter at 6’6”). Last game, Pelicans rookie Yves Missi pulled down 10 rebounds in 26 minutes and the game before that (OKC’s first without Holmgren), Ivica Zubac grabbed 14. In that two-game set, the Thunder have averaged an NBA-low 42.3% rebounding chance percentage, had an NBA-low 22.9% offensive rebounding rate and an NBA-low 54.8% defensive rebounding rate. This is a massive edge and I want to exploit it for the third consecutive game.
Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 Assists vs. Heat (+104, FanDuel)
Haliburton has struggled as a scorer this year, but is starting to show signs that he’s still the same facilitator that he was last year. He’s gone over this mark in five of his last seven games and he’s averaged 10.4 dimes on 19.6 potential helpers. Over his last five head-to-head meetings against Heat PG Terry Rozier, he’s gone over this number four times. Miami has allowed 30.3 assists per game over their last three games (T2nd-most in NBA) and the Heat will presumably be hurt defensively by the void left by Jimmy Butler, who will be out due to an injury. Miami has allowed the 7th-most assists to opposing point guards this year and with Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Isaiah Jackson all out, Haliburton has seen a 7.6% assist rate bump to an elite 45.2%. I’m a fan of this at plus-money over at FanDuel and he still has sky-high assist upside that I expect him to show tonight.
Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram Over 30.5 Points + Assists vs. Nuggets (-110, BetMGM)
Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado are all out for the Pelicans, which means Ingram is going to have a gigantic workload once again. Ingram has seen a 4.6% usage bump to an elite 36.5% and has also seen a 8.7% assist rate bump to 37.27% with those guys off the floor. In his last four games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the Association in Defensive Rating, Ingram put up 33 (Nets), 34 (Blazers), 34 (Hawks) and 33 (Pacers) points + assists and he took 24, 24, 19 and 25 field goal attempts in those contests with 14, nine, eight and 12 potential assists. Denver ranks 19th in Defensive Rating this season and I think this should be a few points higher, which makes it a solid value option.
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox Over 32.5 Points + Assists vs. Clippers (-110, BetMGM)
With Malik Monk and DeMar DeRozan out for the Kings tonight, DeAaron Fox will likely be the main beneficiary. With those guys off the court this season, Fox has seen a 5.6% usage rate to 34.5% and has seen a gigantic assist percentage jump of 26.6% to 41.7%. Monk and DeRozan have combined for 6.9 assists on 11.5 potential helpers, so presumably those will be spread out to others, most likely mainly Fox (5.2 assists on 10.7 potential assists) and Domantas Sabonis (6.8 assists on 11.0 potential assists). This month, Fox has scored an average of 26.1 points per game and has shot 49.7% on 19.4 field goal attempts per game. Coming off his best game of the season (29 points on 11-of-17 shooting with 10 assists on 13 potential dimes) against the Suns, this is another attractive option for a guy in a situation he should take advantage of. The first time he played the Clippers this year, Fox had 31 points and no assists, but amazingly had 10 potential assists, which indicates he simply got unlucky (and both DeRozan and Monk were active for that one).
Related
