In the world of sports betting, there's nothing quite like the thrill of a perfect weekend. My Week 1 NCAAF card couldn't have gone better, with all four of my picks hitting the mark and delivering a clean 4-0 record, netting +4.03 units. From Indiana’s dominant win over Florida International to UNLV’s outright upset at Houston, each game unfolded almost exactly as predicted. Here’s a detailed review of each pick and the key factors that led to this successful start to the college football season.
Indiana -21.5 (-110) vs. Florida International
Final Score: Indiana 31, Florida International 7
What I wrote: “Indiana's heavy roster overhaul under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti is a strategic advantage as they prepare to face Florida International (FIU) in their season opener. With 54 newcomers, including 30 transfers—13 of whom played under Cignetti at James Madison—the Hoosiers are better equipped for a dominant start. Cignetti's impressive .826 career winning percentage speaks to his ability to quickly build successful teams, and his decision to prioritize experienced players over raw talent suggests that Indiana's new roster is primed for immediate impact. Notably, 23 of these transfers bring three or more years of college football experience, including 14 who have earned all-conference honors, providing a seasoned foundation that should overwhelm a struggling FIU team.
BetQL’s projection of Indiana covering a 21.5-point spread is supported by both the Hoosiers' bolstered roster and their tactical matchups. The pairing of quarterback Kurtis Rourke, an experienced Ohio transfer, with James Madison receiver Elijah Surratt adds firepower to Indiana’s offense, poised to exploit FIU’s secondary. Additionally, Indiana's offensive line, which allowed just 16 sacks last season under the guidance of highly regarded coach Bob Bostad, is expected to provide robust protection, giving Rourke ample time to execute plays. With a projected 43-13 win by BetQL, it’s clear that Indiana’s revamped squad is well-positioned to start the Cignetti era with a commanding victory.”
What Happened: Rourke went 15-of-24 passing for 180 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, but Indiana’s ground attack was the main story en route to their big win. They rushed for 234 yards compared to just 53 for FIU and the Hoosiers averaged 6.4 yards per play, over double FIU’s 3.1-yard mark. This one wasn’t close and the 31-7 final score could have probably been even more lopsided.
Old Dominion +21 (-110) at South Carolina
Final Score: South Carolina 23, Old Dominion 19
What I wrote: “Old Dominion's knack for keeping games close, as demonstrated by their record 11 one-score contests in 2023, makes them an intriguing underdog against South Carolina, particularly with a 20.5-point spread. The Monarchs' resilience, highlighted by six games that came down to the final play, suggests they thrive in high-pressure situations, making them well-suited to cover the spread against a South Carolina team that struggled last season.
With 57 newcomers, including 28 transfers, ODU’s roster has been infused with fresh talent, which could be crucial in exploiting South Carolina’s major weakness—their offensive line. ODU's star linebacker Jason Henderson, who led the nation in tackles per game each of the last two seasons, will be key in applying pressure on South Carolina's offense, which allowed the highest pressure rate among Power Five teams last season.
Moreover, the continuity at quarterback with Grant Wilson, who is set to start back-to-back season openers for the first time since Taylor Heinicke, provides stability for the Monarchs' offense. Wilson’s dual-threat ability, as both ODU's leading returning passer and rusher, combined with his experience as a captain, gives the Monarchs a reliable leader who can capitalize on South Carolina’s vulnerable defense. Given South Carolina's disappointing 5-7 record last season and their ongoing offensive line struggles, Old Dominion is well-positioned to keep this game competitive, potentially pushing it into yet another one-score scenario. BetQL’s projection leans toward ODU covering the spread, bolstered by their ability to stay in close games and the potential impact of Henderson on defense.”
What Happened: Old Dominion nearly pulled off the upset and entered the fourth quarter tied with South Carolina. Ultimately, ODU QB Grant Wilson went 22-for-38 for 197 yards and a touchdown, but was intercepted twice, which ended up playing a factor. The Monarchs outgained the Gamecocks 305-to-288 and ODU went 9-for-18 on third down, compared to just 5-of-18 for South Carolina. Watching this game, these two teams were evenly matched and you can make a clear case that the Monarchs should have won. In the end, South Carolina escaped with a 23-19 final score, but most importantly, ODU covered +21 with ease.
James Madison -9.5 (-110) at Charlotte
Final Score: James Madison 30, Charlotte 7
What I wrote: “James Madison’s transition to the FBS has been nothing short of historic, with the Dukes compiling a 19-5 record over the past two seasons and dominating the Sun Belt Conference. As they prepare to face a depleted Charlotte team, JMU’s well-established winning culture, now under the leadership of Bob Chesney, positions them strongly to cover the 9.5-point spread. Chesney’s track record as a proven winner, including his recent success at my alma mater Holy Cross, bodes well for the Dukes, who continue to build on their momentum from last season’s 11-2 finish. While JMU has seen some turnover, their ability to reload with talent, including key transfers like running back Ayo Adeyi from North Texas and linebacker Jacob Dobbs from Holy Cross, should ensure they maintain their competitive edge against a Charlotte squad struggling with injuries.
Charlotte’s injury woes, with potentially half of their starters sidelined, further tilt the advantage towards JMU. The 49ers’ inability to cover the spread in their last four home games against non-conference opponents highlights their vulnerability, which will likely be exacerbated by their current roster issues. With BetQL projecting JMU to win by 13 points, the Dukes are well-positioned to not only secure a victory but also comfortably cover the spread in their season opener against a Charlotte team facing significant adversity.”
What Happened: After heading into halftime up 9-7, JMU outscored Charlotte 21-0 in the second half to earn the impressive cover. Alonza Barnett III was a star at QB for the Dukes, passing for 219 yards with two touchdowns and an interception while also adding a team-high 89 rushing yards. Charlotte’s injury issues were evident as they didn’t have firepower on either side of the ball. The Bob Chesney Era is off to a 1-0 start and the Dukes easily covered -9.5 with the 23-point win.
UNLV ML at Houston (+130)
Final Score: UNLV 27, Houston 7
What I Wrote: “After attracting interest from over 50 schools (including SEC schools, per sources), Holy Cross transfer QB Matthew Sluka chose UNLV and will instantly provide their offense with a dual threat under center. The former Crusader racked up 1,723 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes compared to five interceptions last season but also added 1,247 rushing yards on 6.7 yards per carry for nine additional scores. During his three years as Holy Cross’ starter, he rushed for 3,345 yards with 34 touchdowns in addition to 57 touchdown passes compared to 14 interceptions. As the D-1 record holder for QB rushing yards in a single game (330 last season), he will be a force for a UNLV team that went 9-5 in Barry Odom’s first year as head coach in 2023. OC Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense generated 34.4 points per game last year and other weapons on the offensive end include running back Jai’Den Thomas (who led all freshmen with 12 touchdowns last season), All-American candidate Ricky White III at WR (coming off a school-record 1,483 receiving yards), WR Jacob De Jesus and WR Casey Cain, who transferred from Texas. Four offensive linemen will return for the Rebels and seven starters will return on the defensive side of the football.
Coming off a 4-8 campaign, Houston is now under new head coach Willie Fritz. Quarterback Donovan Smith should be a dual threat as well, but his 13 interceptions last season were concerning and his top two receivers from last season (Samuel Brown and Matthew Golden) transferred out. On the offensive line, just one of five starters will be back from last year’s squad. Defensively, Fritz essentially rebuilt his entire roster, bringing in 13 transfers, after the team allowed 31.5 points per game last year. It could take some time for this team to start gelling.
Overall, it seems a lot like these teams are heading in opposite directions and I’m fired up about UNLV’s potential this year. Therefore, even on the road, I’m going to go with the Rebels to not only cover, but win outright.”
What Happened: Sluka didn’t have to do too much in this one as a passer, going 6-for-13 for 71 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Instead, UNLV rushed the ball 46 times for 198 yards and controlled the game. Smith was horrible for Houston, going 15-for-30 for 135 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions before he was benched for Ui Ale, who went 7-for-8 for 74 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. Houston rushed the ball 26 times for just 50 yards, 1.9 yards per carry. As I noted in my prediction, these two teams are headed in opposite directions.
Stay tuned for Week 2 picks and follow me @danielkarpuc!