As college football’s 2024 season kicks off, Week 1 brings high-stakes action and intriguing betting trends. Our Public Report delves into the public’s favorite bets, highlighting key matchups like #1 Georgia facing #14 Clemson, where the Bulldogs are heavily favored, and the total line for UTEP vs. Nebraska, which has seen a significant shift. We’ll also examine the betting frenzy surrounding the Over in the Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the scene, understanding these public betting trends can offer valuable insights into where the money is flowing and how it might impact game outcomes.
1. #1 Georgia -12 vs. #14 Clemson
In the first ranked matchup of the 2024 college football season, the Clemson Tigers are set to do battle with the Georgia Bulldogs in a contest between two of the biggest and most successful programs in the history of the sport. For Clemson, they have fallen on “tough” times as of late, if you want to stretch the definition of tough. They aren’t winning National Championships or making the CFP, which is something they had grown accustomed to over the last decade or so. In fact, their odds to win the title this year are their longest since 2014. Georgia remains an absolute powerhouse, in contention almost every season, and coming up just short last year of making the playoff. I am not even remotely shocked that the public is all over the Bulldogs, as they typically are.
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Georgia is getting 61% of the total bets on the spread so far, and I expect that number to do nothing but increase as kickoff draws closer. Money and tickets on the favorite tend to increase in the hours leading up to the game. The line moved from -13.5 to -14, then back to -13.5, and now it sits at -12 at most places at the time of this writing. So, despite all those tickets being on the Bulldogs, sportsbooks seem just fine to move the line further in their favor. That should tell you something.
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2. UTEP at Nebraska Over 49
While this game certainly won’t have as many eyes on it as the Georgia game, bettors still clearly are on one side of the total between the UTEP Miners and Nebraska Cornhuskers. UTEP is coming off of a terrible 3-9 season where they didn’t do much of anything good, and now they get to face off with a Power Five team that is clearly more talented than they are at every position, and is a 27-point favorite. Meanwhile, it seems like it has been a lifetime since Nebraska was a college football dynasty, but believe it or not, this used to be the Alabama of the sport. The Cornhuskers have been trying to reclaim their former glory for years.
While the side doesn’t show anything truly noteworthy, the total is getting a lot of attention, and almost all of it has been toward the over. A huge 82% of tickets are backing that side of the total, so the public is expecting a higher-scoring affair here. Personally, I would look towards the other side of this and take the under. I don’t bet a lot of totals, but with this many bets on the over and the total opening at 51.5, it says something that it has moved to 49 at most places.
3. #7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M Over 46
The public always loves backing an over bet, so naturally, they are all over it here when the Fighting Irish travel down to Texas to take on the Aggies at Kyle Field. Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country on paper, with a solid offense behind new QB Riley Leonard, who can really hurt you with his legs as a runner. Texas A&M also has a very strong defense, but their new offense with QB Connor Weigman at the helm is expected to be much improved. Clearly, the public thinks a total of just 46 points is too low for these two talented teams, and they are hammering the over.
A gigantic 77% of the total bets are on the over in this game, with the under only attracting 23% of bettors. As always, the public could very likely be on the wrong side of this total. Both teams own fantastic defenses that can shut you down. There are plenty of questions about Leonard’s effectiveness as a passer for Notre Dame, while the Irish defensive line might be able to expose the weak interior of the Aggies offensive line and get to Weigman. The total has moved from 47.5 to 46, despite all of these bets.
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