College football betting has reached a critical juncture as we head into Week 4, and the public is making its voice heard in the betting markets. From high-profile matchups featuring top-25 teams to under-the-radar showdowns, the general betting public is leaning heavily toward certain teams. This week, the public is riding with Toledo after its big SEC upset, backing Tennessee to keep rolling behind their star QB, and placing their trust in USC as they face a struggling Michigan squad. Let’s dive into the biggest public betting trends for Week 4 and explore where the smart money might be heading.
Toledo -2.5 at Western Kentucky
After their huge upset win over Mississippi State last week, I think we all knew that the general public square bettor was going to buy into the Rockets the next week. It isn’t very often that a MAC school rolls into an SEC stadium and comes out with a victory, so naturally, they are getting a ton of attention now in the betting market against Western Kentucky.
According to BetQL, 94 percent of the tickets are on Toledo -2.5 on the road against the Hilltoppers. That is a massive number, but to be quite honest, it isn’t shocking at all. Most public bettors will recall that Alabama wiped the floor with Western Kentucky in Week 1 63-0, and that is the only performance they will think about. Since that game, the Hilltoppers are 2-0 with a 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky and 49-21 win over Middle Tennessee State. While those aren’t exactly great football programs, Toledo also isn’t even close to the level that the Crimson Tide are on.
Even more interesting, despite all of these tickets, the line has moved in favor of WKU from +3 to +2.5.
#6 Tennessee -7.5 at #15 Oklahoma
Perhaps one of the most public teams this season outside of Texas, the Volunteers are getting 61 percent of the bets right now laying the points in Oklahoma, according to BetMGM. Everyone loves this Tennessee team led by Nico Iamaleava, who is likely going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft a couple years down the road unless he completely implodes. They have blown out every team they have faced to this point: 69-3 vs. Chattanooga, 51-10 at N.C. State, and 71-0 vs. Kent State. Tennessee has outscored their opponents 191-13 through three games.
The Sooners are also 3-0, but their wins haven’t been as dominant as the Vols. On top of that, they won a very close 16-12 game against Houston, which is considered to be a bad win considering the talent level gap between the two teams. The public will see that they struggled in that game against a lesser opponent and fade them, which is why I will be doing the opposite this weekend. This team has a great defense, one that is far better than anything this Tennessee offense has experienced to this point.
This line has bounced from -7.5 to -7 this week, with the hook garnering attention from sharp bettors. Rest assured, the public masses will almost certainly be on the favorite as we get closer to kickoff in this contest.
#11 USC -6 at #18 Michigan
Anyone who has been paying attention to college football this season could have seen this game coming for this article a mile away. The Trojans, led by ultra-public head coach Lincoln Riley, have looked quite good over their first two games. They beat a ranked LSU team in Week 1, and then shut out Utah State 48-0 in Week 2 before having their bye week. They are now well-rested and taking on a Wolverines team that absolutely no square bettor is going to want a piece of right now.
Michigan is a long way from the championship team they were last season. Sure, they are 2-1 and ranked No. 18 in the country, but it has not been a pretty start. They struggled to put away Fresno State in Week 1, got completely dominated at home by Texas in Week 2, and won by just 10 points at home against a truly horrendous Arkansas State team in Week 3. Therefore, it isn’t even close to surprising that USC is getting 76 percent of the bets on the spread in this game according to BetMGM.
The public is going to be all over the Trojans at less than a touchdown against this disappointing Michigan squad, you can count on that.
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