It’s the showdown we have been waiting for since the schedule was released for the 2024 college football season, when the Georgia Bulldogs head to Texas to take on the Longhorns. It will be one of the most wagered-on games of the season, with a ton of tickets and money being put down by the public and sharps alike. Right now, Georgia is a 4-point underdog on the road against Texas, with the total sitting at around 56.5 everywhere. This should be a phenomenal game with NFL talent all over the field, and I’m sure ABC is going to love the massive TV ratings they will get out of this.
Georgia is 5-1 on the season, coming off of two straight wins against Mississippi State and Auburn, but their loss against Alabama is still fresh in the public’s mind. It was the last game they played against a ranked opponent, and after the Crimson Tide lost outright the next weekend in a massive upset to Vanderbilt, many are questioning if the Bulldogs are nearly as good as many have perceived. On top of that, Georgia has failed to cover the spread in five straight games, and has been one of the worst ATS teams this season in college football.
On the other side, Texas will be at home and they are undefeated this season at 6-0, despite their starting quarterback missing time. Quinn Ewers always seems to be dealing with an injury, but when he went down once again, his backup Arch Manning stepped up and performed well. We all know Manning is the future that will take over next year, so it was good to get him some serious snaps in. Ewers is back however, and even though they got off to a rocky start against rival Oklahoma, they ended up destroying them by over 30 points. The Longhorns have covered the spread in four of the last five games and are rolling right along.
Taking a look at the betting splits right now, 58 percent of tickets and 45 percent of the handle is on Texas spread. The general public is backing the Longhorns at a decent rate, but I think the total is even more telling here. A whopping 75 percent of bets and 74 percent of money is on the over in this game. That isn’t shocking to see, as both offenses have explosive playmakers and have put up a ton of points this season. So, as per usual, the public is on the favorite and the over.
For me, I’ll likely be backing the Bulldogs and the under here. Texas has yet to really face a team that should be considered “good”, even though they have faced Michigan and Oklahoma. I’m sorry, but both of those teams are terrible compared to what Georgia will bring to the table in this one. I will be very interested to see how they handle the Bulldogs defense offensively, and how the Texas defense will do against a serious offense. Carson Beck is a much better QB than Davis Warren or Michael Hawkins.
With so many people on the over, I have a feeling this will be a lower-scoring game than many believe. We’ll see where the line and money goes through the week, but that will probably be my favorite bet here.
Best Bets: Georgia +4, Under 56.5
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