The midweek college football games continue on Wednesday. Once again, Conference USA owns the spotlight with a pair of games, including some of the top teams in the conference in action. Both of Wednesday’s games feature spreads over 20 points, so while the winner of each game might be obvious, let’s take a closer look at each matchup to find the best ATS bets for Wednesday’s C-USA games.
Liberty (5-0) -25.5 at Kennesaw State (0-6)
Liberty is the last remaining unbeaten team in Conference USA at 5-0, including 2-0 in conference play. The caveat is that the Flames are just 1-4 against the spread this season. They’ve yet to win a game by more than 18 points, so a spread of 25.5 points might be a lot to cover. The Liberty offense is rolling, scoring at least 30 points in all but one of their games. The Flames run the ball as well as any team in C-USA while quarterback Kaidon Salter has proven to be reliable, completing 63% of his passes and throwing just one interception despite not lighting up the scoreboard. The question is can the Liberty offense dominate enough to cover such a massive spread.
Keep in mind that Kennesaw State is winless on the season and just 1-5 against the spread. Even in a competitive 14-5 loss to Middle Tennessee last week, the Owls failed to beat the spread. That’s because Kennesaw State is the worst offensive team in the country. The Owls are averaging less than 230 total yards per game and have scored 20 points or less in three of their six games. At times, the Kennesaw State defense has done enough to keep games halfway respectable. But they also allowed 63 points against Jacksonville State earlier this month. That was Kennesaw’s toughest game to date, which doesn’t bode well for them being able to stay within 25.5 points of the Flames.
Pick: Liberty -25.5
Jacksonville State (3-3) -21 vs. Middle Tennessee (2-5)
Jacksonville State is one of three C-USA teams still unbeaten in conference play. The Gamecocks lost three straight non-conference games to open the season but have responded with a three-game winning streak. Those three wins have all been lopsided affairs by an average margin of victory of nearly 40 points. Even in some of their losses, the Jacksonville State offense showed plenty of potency behind a dynamic rushing attack. Quarterback Tyler Huff is in his sixth year of college and has proven to be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in Conference USA, as he’s Jacksonville State's leading rusher and a competent passer. Defensively, the Gamecocks have some flaws, although they’ve been able to handle some of the worst teams in Conference USA in recent weeks.
At 2-5, Middle Tennessee might qualify as one of the worst teams in C-USA. The Blue Raiders snapped a five-game losing streak last week, but weren’t overly convincing in a 14-5 win over Kennesaw State. They are now just 2-5 against the spread, including 1-4 against the spread as an underdog. In four of their five losses this season, the Blue Raiders have allowed more than 40 points. That doesn’t create much confidence that they can keep the Jacksonville State offense contained. Meanwhile, a team that’s averaging just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground and has conceded 22 sacks in seven games isn’t likely to keep pace in a shootout. While Nicholas Vattiato gives Middle Tennessee an experienced quarterback, his performances haven’t indicated that he can keep the Blue Raiders close in a high-scoring game.
Pick: Jacksonville State -21
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