As we head into Week 11 of college football and Week 10 in the NFL, the betting public is showing clear preferences for certain teams. From big-name programs in NCAAF like Penn State and Georgia to NFL favorites like the Lions, the public is backing a handful of teams with strong support. This analysis gives insight into where the money is flowing, with insights from BetMGM on which outcomes the sportsbook will be rooting for. Here's a look at the most popular public bets and where the sharp money lies this weekend.
#6 Penn State (7-1) -13.5 vs. Washington (5-4)
Every week, we will bring you insights on where the public betting masses are in college football and in the NFL. This information is very important to a lot of handicappers, as knowing what the sportsbooks will be rooting for can play a key part in making a pick and pushing that button. Our friend John Ewing, who works in data and PR for BetMGM Sportsbook, was kind enough to share their full betting splits chart for this weekend for football.
In college football, there is a clear favorite for the public this weekend, and that is the Penn State Nittany Lions at home against the Washington Huskies. They are laying nearly two touchdowns in this game, with a spread of -13.5, but people certainly don’t seem to care. A whopping 81% of total spread tickets in this game have been written for that side, with seemingly no one interested in backing Washington here.
With Penn State coming off a loss to Ohio State, and the Huskies being just 5-4 on the season, it isn’t shocking to see them laying the points rooting for a bounce back performance.
#2 Georgia (7-1) -3 at #16 Ole Miss (7-2)
Perhaps a bit surprising with how middling the Bulldogs have looked this season, the betting public is backing them here on the road this weekend against the Rebels. 78% of the spread bets in this game are on Georgia -3, so not a lot of love for the home team at all. Since Ole Miss already has two losses, the public perception of them is not as high, and of couse Georgia has had much more success over the last few years.
Seamus Magee, who is a sports trading manager at BetMGM, had this to say about their weekend, including this game: “As it stands right now, the biggest need is Ole Miss against Georgia. Hoosiers are also a big liability and we’ll be saying Go Blue on Saturday. In a battle of SEC power houses, the book will be pulling for Alabama at LSU.”
That pretty much sums up where all the money is going for this game, and the public is going to be all over Georgia here.
Vikings (6-2) -7 at Jaguars (2-7)
Taking a look at the NFL now, the public is backing the usual suspects this weekend, so I doubt you are going to be very shocked at the teams I talk about here. The Vikings are the most bet team of the weekend as of right now, as they take on the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. There was no doubt that Minnesota was going to be the public side here, but now that it looks like QB Mac Jones will start in place of Trevor Lawrence, they love them even more.
A gigantic 90% of the spread bets in this game are on the Vikings, with almost no one taking the points with the Jags. I’d also wager that Minnesota will be one of the biggest moneyline parlay liabilities for the sportsbook as well.
Lions (7-1) -3.5 at Texans (6-3)
This is a staple of this article every week, as the Lions are the most public team in the NFL by a country mile. You will not see an article talking about the most public picks of the week without mentioning Detroit. They are as square as it can possibly get, and now they are on the road against the Houston Texans, a team that has been awful at covering spreads this year. They also just lost to the New York Jets, and people will not like that.
A huge 89% of the bets are on the Lions to cover this spread, as well as 88% of the cash. This is the same story every week.
Christian Cipolini, a trading manager at BetMGM, had this to say about their needs for the NFL weekend: “There are 7 games on Sunday with favorites of 6+ points. We will be cheering for a few of those teams to lose. The Lions (7-1 ATS) are the most bet team to cover in Week 10 and the sportsbook needs the Texans to at least cover.”
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