With the possible exception of the Super Bowl, Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Bills is arguably the most anticipated game of the season. All season, it seems like these teams have been on a collision course to play their fourth playoff game against one another in the last five years. Such a big game requires a big bet, which is why we’ve put together a long-shot parlay for the AFC Championship Game that currently has odds of +6000 at BetMGM.
Over 55.5 (+200)
The regular-season game between these teams ended with 51 total points. Likewise, the three previous playoff games between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all finished with at least 51 points. In fact, those three playoff games averaged a total of 63.7 points. Based on that track record, the Bills and Chiefs are bound to play another high-scoring game. On this big of a stage, it’s reasonable to think that both Mahomes and Allen will rise to the occasion and deliver another classic. The over on 55.5 points isn’t even as high as you might want to go, but it guarantees the equivalent of eight touchdowns (and successful PATs) in the AFC Championship Game, which is reasonable.
Travis Kelce 100+ Receiving Yards (+260)
The Bills managed to keep Kelce under wraps when these teams met during the regular season. But it’s going to be tough to repeat that this week, especially after Kelce caught seven passes on eight targets for 117 yards against the Texans last week. In the most important game of the season, Mahomes is going to look early and often at his most trusted pass-catcher. More importantly, the Bills have never been able to contain Kelce in the playoffs. His 75 yards against them in last year’s playoff meeting is the lowest in the three playoff games between these teams. With some injury concerns among Buffalo’s secondary and linebackers, covering Kelce could become even more problematic, allowing him to reach the century mark against the Bills.
Josh Allen 300+ Passing Yards (+375)
If the Bills are going to win this game, there is every chance Allen will have to win it with his arm. When the Bills were 13 seconds away from beating Kansas City a few years ago, Allen finished the game with 329 yards. Sunday’s game could end up following a similar script. Plus, if this game ends up being a shootout, Allen’s arm will do more heavy lifting than his legs, at least between the 20s. When the Bills found themselves in shootouts with the Rams and Lions in December, Allen ended up throwing for well over 300 yards, so he’s more than capable of reaching that number again if the Buffalo defense can’t slow down Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.
Mack Hollins Anytime Touchdown (+600)
Hollins undoubtedly leads the Bills in bravado, not to mention creative pre-game outfits. Another fun fact about Hollins is that he led Buffalo in receiving touchdowns during the regular season with five despite just 31 catches. With so many other options in the passing game, the Chiefs can’t possibly devote a lot of resources to shutting down Hollins, allowing him to fly under the radar. Granted, his usage isn’t as high as some of Buffalo’s other receivers. But he’s just the type of player to come out of nowhere with a touchdown catch in a game like this. Technically, Hollins scores a touchdown every six receptions, and since he hasn’t scored since December 8, he’s due.
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