Here we go again. For the fourth time, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will meet up with Patrick Mahomes and the Buffalo Bills in the postseason. So far, the Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs, but 4-1 against them in the regular season. Combined, they are 4-4 in head-to-head matchups, so we could be in store for yet another classic this weekend with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
I know everyone is going to be rooting for the Bills, as most people outside of Kansas City are sick of seeing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl at this point. However, with a point spread of Chiefs -2 at most places right now, that dream is an underdog at the moment. Throughout the week, I’ll be dissecting the two championship matchups to try and find us the most informed wager possible to make on the games. I’ve mentioned it before, but it is the little things that can add up to really matter in the end as to who will cover the spread.
The good news for Buffalo here is that it is almost impossible to argue that they have been the better team this season as a whole. In nearly every category, the Bills have the Chiefs beat, and it is honestly pretty impressive that Kansas City is even in this game to begin with. They ranked outside the top-10 in total offense and total defense. In fact, they were 22nd in the league in rushing, unable to get anything going at all on the ground.
One thing that stood out to me though, was the difference in passing EPA between these teams. According to ESPN, the Bills' 0.25 EPA per dropback entering Sunday is almost double what the Chiefs (0.13) have put together this year. If you don’t know, EPA stands for expected points added. It is basically a measure of success/failure that also takes into account the down-and-distance, then assigns an expected point value based on the outcome. I know, it can be confusing, but it is just telling you the Bills have been far more successful on passing plays.
That is difficult to believe when Mahomes is on the other side, but Allen has been the better overall signal-caller this season. His 77.3 QBR blows away Mahomes’ mark of 67.7 on the year, and Allen gets the benefit of playing behind the best offensive line in football. The Bills allowed the fewest sacks this season to opposing defenses, while the Chiefs ranked 23rd in pass protection.
Another stat that is in the Bills favor is yards per play, where Buffalo ranks 6th in the NFL compared to 23rd for Kansas City. Buffalo has been a much more explosive team on offense, and it hasn’t even been close. So, how have the Chiefs managed to even get here? Well, they have been exceptional at converting third downs, ranking 2nd in the league. Their defense ranked 8th against the run, and also was fantastic in the Red Zone.
I don’t think anyone can argue that the Bills have a clear edge on offense, but Arrowhead is a different beast. It is the ultimate challenge in this era of the NFL. We’ll see if they can pull it off.
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