Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves playing in the AFC Championship game, which they have been doing now for seven straight years. Talk about a lack of competition, no one seems to be able to beat them when it matters most. They truly are the closest thing we have seen to the 2000s New England Patriots teams, led by the best to ever do it, Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes is trying to make his own argument that he is the best to do it, but he doesn’t have all of this success without some help.
As we know, Kansas City has not gotten a lot of production out of their receivers this season. However, the return of Hollywood Brown from a season-long injury could change that, and they are very clearly giving him a shot to take the mantle as WR2 in this offense.
According to Dataroma on X, Brown has very clearly been tasked with a heavy load right away.
As good as DeAndre Hopkins has been in his career, he’s 32 years old now and has just not been the same player that he was in his prime with Houston. He didn’t have a single catch against his former team last week and had just one target in the game. While Brown also didn’t have a catch and only had two targets himself, he also saw the field far more than Hopkins, as Dataroma notes above.
Still, it would seem that his role is going to be bigger going forward. The Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills this weekend, a team that has had plenty of trouble on defense in 2024. In fact, Buffalo ranks just 24th in the NFL against the pass, and 21st in yards per play. They have been exposed several times this season for huge gains down the field, and we know how quick Brown is off the line. He’ll be looking to get back into his groove here, and with how good his release is, I won’t be shocked if he gets behind that defense for a burner play.
His receiving yards line is 34.5 over at BetMGM, and his total receptions prop is 3.5. He’s +250 right now to score a touchdown in this game, and there is some good value here that I think we can take advantage of. I’m not sure the sportsbook has adjusted enough to the stats shared above, and with how much he will be on the field, the opportunities he will have to get just 35 yards here against a far worse defense than what they saw last week.
Brown’s usage rate is only going to go up now that he is back, so take advantage of these low lines while you can.
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