With the NFC and AFC Conference Championships kicking off on Sunday, everyone will be sorting through all kinds of special markets to try and find value wherever it may be. It certainly is out there, and one of the more popular markets to wager on will be the receiving yards leader for the weekend. Essentially, you are betting on whoever you think will have the most receiving yards of any player in either game. Some of the candidates are interesting, and some you might not expect to be as high on the list.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin leads the oddsboard at +450 to have the most receiving yards this weekend. While he is the No. 1 target for rookie Jayden Daniels, he has a very tough matchup on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank No. 1 in the NFL in passing defense. They also rank No. 1 in yards per play allowed, so it is not going to be a walk in the park for McLaurin like it has been against much weaker passing defenses in the Bucs and Lions.
Tied with McLaurin at +450 odds at the top is Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, who went off last week for 117 yards and a score against the Houston Texans. He’s the No. 1 target for Patrick Mahomes, clearly, and it seems as if he saved up his energy for the postseason. It also isn’t lost on oddsmakers that the Buffalo defense is the worst one left against the pass, ranking 24th in the league, while also ranking 21st in yards per play. They have been burned down the field for big yardage at times, so this one makes a lot of sense to me. Still, I think he is going to be a popular choice, and that makes me want to avoid him.
One guy that I have my eye on is Eagles WR AJ Brown, at +500 odds, who I think could have a huge game in store for us on Sunday against the Commanders. I have talked in other articles about how I feel Washington is going to have all eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who demands a ton of attention from opposing defenses with how he has dominated this season. As a result of so many eyes being on the backfield, that could open up the passing game. Now, no one wants to back Jalen Hurts with the way he is playing right now, but that is why I like Philly’s chances to have success through the air. The Commanders were great against the pass, ranking 3rd in the NFL, but I just feel like they will force Hurts to beat them instead of Barkley.
Rounding out the top four candidates is Buffalo WR Khalil Shakir, who has been a serious deep threat all season for the Bills. He will also have a pretty favorable matchup in coverage, with Kansas City ranking just 18th in the league against the pass. However, they have been pretty good at limiting explosive plays, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed. They have played exceptionally well at home this season, so it could be rather difficult for Shakir to get behind the secondary for a big play, and the Chiefs have to have a lot of focus on stopping Allen. He has played at an MVP level, and they know this.
Overall, I like the value of AJ Brown at 5/1 odds to have the most receiving yards this weekend. I think Philadelphia is going to be a sneaky good team to attack in terms of passing with so much attention going to Barkley, and the play action game could really fool Washington into allowing some deep plays. DeVonta Smith is 11/1, Dallas Goedert is 25/1, and Jahan Dotson is 40/1 to have a revenge game. I think all of those are worth some baby peanuts to sweat out this weekend.
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