The Washington Commanders will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship this coming weekend, a battle between NFC East rivals to determine who goes to the Super Bowl. The Eagles are a -6 favorite, with a game total of 48 in most markets, and we should be in store for a fantastic game if their previous meetings mean anything at all. The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 in Philadelphia in their first matchup, while Washington got some revenge in their second game 36-33 in a classic.
All week, I’ll be dissecting these games and trying to find every angle possible so that we can make the most informed and smart wager possible, and I think we have found some important information here that could have a big impact on this game. Most people don’t get into some of the intricate stats in the game, such as the blitz rate for these two defenses, but that kind of stuff is extremely important when it comes to impacting the game.
We all know that bringing the blitz can have a lot of benefits, like sacking the quarterback and causing turnovers. What it also does, however, is open up running lanes if the quarterback manages to escape the rush. How many times have we seen Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels do just that? He’s been excellent at getting out of the pocket and using his legs to pick up first downs again and again. While that is a huge weapon against teams that do want to send pressure, it might not be as much of a threat against teams that don’t send extra men.
Philadelphia is one of those teams, as the Eagles have a very low 18% blitz rate this season. They were 14th in sacks this season despite never sending extra attackers, which is pretty impressive. What this does is allow more players to be in coverage, and deploy a QB spy to help contain the legs of Daniels, which have been so dangerous this season. While he has obviously been great for a rookie when it comes to passing, the Commanders ranked just 17th in passing offensively. He’s been far more dangerous as a dual threat, and it is likely that Philly will want to make him one dimensional.
If you look at the two previous games they played, Daniels was held to just 18 yards rushing on seven attempts in the first game, which was a loss for Washington. In the second game, he ran for 81 yards on nine attempts, having far more success in a win. If you look at their losses this season, you will notice a pattern. Daniels is held under 50 yards on the ground in a majority of those, while he is the leading rusher for the team in a lot of their wins.
I think the Eagles have to know this, and they will adjust to that kind of strategy as well. If they can successfully stop the QB run, I think they have a fantastic chance to win this game, possibly in a blowout win. Philly ranked 10th against the run this season and 1st against the pass, and with a low blitz rate like they have, they have a good chance to limit Daniels in the running game.
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