At first glance, both NFL conference championship games this week figure to be high-scoring affairs. Barely a month ago, the Eagles and Commanders played an entertaining 36-33 game while the Bills and Chiefs combined for 51 points when they met earlier this season. But no matter how many touchdowns are scored on Sunday, only two players will have the distinction of scoring the first touchdown in each game. Let’s look at some of the best options to score the first touchdown in Sunday’s conference championship games.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders (+375)
Barkley has such low odds as an anytime touchdown scorer that one of the best ways to find value is betting on him as the first touchdown scorer in the NFC Championship Game. While Jalen Hurts beat him to the end zone last week, Barkley did score later in the first quarter. Three of the last four touchdowns he’s scored have come in the first quarter, so he’s getting off to fast starts lately. Two of those first-quarter scorers actually came against Washington when these teams met last month. Over two games against the Commanders this season, Barkley had 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Washington’s defense had no answer for him in those games, so it’s not hard to envision Barkley breaking out another long touchdown run to open the scoring on Sunday.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles (+900)
The Commanders failed to score the first touchdown last week, but if they manage to do so this week, it’ll likely be McLaurin in the end zone. The Eagles allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns during the regular season, so a passing touchdown for Jayden Daniels is far more likely than a rushing touchdown. Despite Dyami Brown emerging during the playoffs and Zach Ertz being a reliable safety net for Daniels, McLaurin has been his favorite target all season. After being contained in the first meeting between these teams, McLaurin had five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 16. Daniels won’t be afraid to look in McLaurin’s direction, especially if the Commanders have a chance to score first.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt vs. Bills (+1100)
The Chiefs have been all over the map with regard to their first touchdown this season. Patrick Mahomes has been great at spreading the ball around early and not being predictable, even calling his own number at times. That being said, Hunt makes the most sense, even if he doesn’t have the shortest odds. He’s scored a touchdown in three straight games while consistently getting more touches than Isiah Pacheco. That includes the first touchdown of the game in last week’s win over the Texans. If Mahomes ends up throwing for the first touchdown of the game, there are too many viable options. But if Kansas City scores a running touchdown, it’s almost certainly going to be Hunt, who seems to be preferred over Pacheco, especially in the red zone.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Chiefs (+700)
For what it’s worth, the Bills have been terrible at scoring the first touchdown in games this season. That’s continued during the playoffs, as they’ve allowed their opponents to score on their opening drive in both games. But if the Bills somehow score first in the AFC Championship Game, it’ll likely be Allen on a tush-push from the one-yard line or running circles around the Kansas City defense from 30 yards out. Excluding Week 18 when he played just one snap, Allen has scored at least one rushing touchdown in seven of his last nine games. In three of those games, Allen was at least Buffalo’s first touchdown scorer. While the Bills tend to only run him in crunch time, all 60 minutes of the AFC Championship Game can be considered crunch time, making Allen the best option Buffalo has to be the first touchdown scorer.
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