Yesterday, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley was named a finalist for NFL MVP, along with four other players. However, he stands out from the others because he isn’t a quarterback, and it is quite rare that any position other than QB wins the award. In fact, it has been over a decade since that happened, when Minnesota Vikings legend Adrian Peterson secured NFL MVP in 2012. While we don’t know if he will actually win it, there is no doubt that he is very deserving.
This weekend, he will be playing in the NFC Championship game against the Washington Commanders with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. So far in two playoff games, he’s rushed for 325 total yards, with 206 of those coming last weekend in the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams. There is plenty of reason to think he could find similar success against Washington as well.
As Dataroma points out, this matchup heavily favors the Eagles star.
Saquon has averaged 3.58 yards before contact per attempt this season (leads all RBs), while the Commanders are allowing the most yards before contact per attempt (2.47) this season.
As the post points out, the Commanders have also allowed the 8th-highest explosive run rate (15+ yard runs) at 5.6%, and the 4th most explosive rush yards (762) this year. Saquon is 4th among all RBs in explosive run rate (7.2%), and explosive rush yards have accounted for 44% of his total rushing yards this year (highest percentage among all RBs).
That’s the recipe for a huge performance.
When you combine those advanced stats with the fact that Washington ranked 30th against the run in 2024, it is pretty easy to see why Barkley could be in store for a massive game on the ground. Let’s also not forget that these two teams have already played each other twice this season, and they split the games 1-1 in their divisional matchups.
Barkley ran for 146 yards in their first game, which was a 26-18 Eagles win at home. He ran for 150 more yards against them in Washington, but the Commanders found a way to squeak out a 36-33 victory. That’s nearly 300 yards rushing against Washington in two games, so what will he do when he gets to face them for a trip to New Orleans?
Personally, I’d like to find out. I already sprinkled Barkley to gain 200+ rushing yards at 12/1 odds, which I thought was just a ludacris price considering what he has done recently, and what he did against the Commanders in the regular season. That number is long gone now, and some books aren’t even offering it anymore.
Still, there are plenty of ways to back the Eagles superstar, and he might put the team on his back this weekend.
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