The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will clash in the NFC Championship game this Sunday for a chance to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. People are going to be betting on this game left and right, with all kinds of markets to analyze in an effort to make the most informed wagers possible. While digging into some of these markets, I found a prop that may prove to be very advantageous, but it is also quite risky.
You may remember that Eagles WR Jahan Dotson was drafted in the first round by the Commanders in the 2022 NFL Draft at No. 16 overall. The receiver was traded to Philadelphia this past offseason after failing to make an impact in Washington in his first few years. He’s mostly made little noise with the Eagles this season as well, but he has had a couple of games where he has been more involved in the offense. Now, he’ll get a chance to face his former team and show them that they made a mistake giving up on him at just 24 years old.
Dotson’s receiving yards prop is just 3.5 at BetMGM in the NFC Championship game, which shows you just how much he is valued right now. He didn’t catch a single pass last weekend against the Los Angeles Rams and also didn’t receive a target, either. However, you have to go a little deeper than that if you want to find some value on props like this, and I think at just 3.5 yards, there is some here.
According to FootballGuys database, Dotson actually had a bigger role in the offense last week than his face value stats might show. While he didn’t catch a pass or receive a target, he took 39 snaps last week, which was the third most on the team behind AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. That was 62% of the total offensive snaps for the Eagles in that game, which is higher than he got against the Packers the week before, which was 57%. His role in the offense increased, and he is solidly the No. 3 receiver behind Brown and Smith.
When you consider his yardage total is just 3.5, we really need just a single catch from him in all likelihood to cash this wager. I believe that playing his former team is going to motivate him even more than usual to have a decent performance, as we see that a lot when players face off with their former squads. It is hard not to bet this when he is playing in over 60% of their offensive snaps, even if Washington did rank third against the pass this year.
I also took into account what the Commanders likely will be most concerned about in this game. Clearly, that is going to be Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. I would imagine they are going to be doing everything in their power to stop him with how well he has been playing, and make QB Jalen Hurts beat them through the air. This would only mean more chances for Dotson to get the ball at some point, and as I said, his prop really demands just a single catch. If he catches a ball and doesn’t get four yards with it, you can chalk that up as very unlucky.
Look for Dotson to contribute here against his former team, and I love taking his over 3.5 receiving yards prop as a sneaky wager for the NFC Championship game.
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