The NFC and AFC Championship games are set, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as four teams battle for a coveted Super Bowl berth. While the spotlight shines on superstar quarterbacks and high-powered offenses, savvy bettors know the key to finding value often lies in team total bets. Oddsmakers have set intriguing lines for the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills, both of which may present opportunities for sharp plays.
In this article, we’ll break down why the Commanders’ team total under 21.5 and the Bills’ team total under 23.5 are worth your attention. With elite defenses in play and sharp action signaling potential scoring struggles, these picks align with the unique challenges each team faces this weekend. Let’s dive into the data and matchup dynamics shaping these bets.
Commanders Team Total Under 21.5 (-105, BetMGM)
This team total seems incredibly low considering what the Commanders have been doing as of late. In fact, they have gone over this total in five straight games coming into this one, and in eight of their last 10 contests. It seems pretty telling to me that they would list this as low as three touchdowns, especially after they put up 45 points on the Lions last weekend and looked unstoppable at times.
The Jayden Daniels hype train is full steam ahead right now, and the Commanders bandwagon grows with every win that they rack up. Since they are a significant underdog in this game, I wouldn’t be shocked if the public backed them in all sorts of ways, including taking them at large plus money to win the game outright. I think after a huge upset win against Detroit, they could be in for a letdown here on the road against a very good Eagles team.
Philadelphia ranked 1st in the NFL against the pass and 10th against the run, as well as the best defense in terms of yards per play given up. In nearly every category, they rank inside the top-10, so putting up a lot of points on them is going to be a very tough task. In the first game these two faced off, Washington scored 18 points, while in Game 2 they scored 36. Mixed results, but I’d say the former is more likely here.
I think there is a reason their team total is so low compared to the actual points they have put up for weeks, signaling that they could struggle here on offense. If you look at the line in the game, the Eagles have moved from -4.5 to -6 at most books, and even -6.5 at others. The early sharp action clearly likes the Eagles, and Washington is becoming a public underdog. Those historically have not turned out to be valuable.
Bills Team Total Under 23.5 (-110, Caesars)
The Bills can win this football game, and I know virtually all of America will be rooting on them to do so, but I feel it will be a very low-scoring affair. Buffalo has gone over this number in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn’t was in Week 17, where the starters didn’t play against New England for rest before the playoffs. When Josh Allen and the starters play, they have gone over this team total in 15 of their 18 games. I think there is a reason that it is set so low here relative to how many points they typically put up.
Kansas City remains an enigma, ranking outside the top-10 in both total offense and defense, yet they keep winning games. The Chiefs were 18th against the pass, but 8th against the run, which is key for them. They need to stop James Cook and Allen in the running game if they want to have success here. I know it sounds insane, but making Allen beat them through the air will go a long way to stopping Buffalo. Taking away the QB scramble and containing Cook handicaps the offense.
The Bills ranked 9th in total rushing and total passing, and as pointed out, have gone over 23 points in 15 of 18 games the starters have played. Personally, I think the oddsmakers made their total this low for a reason, and I’ll take the under.
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