One of the most popular props this weekend for the Conference Championship games is on who will have the most passing yards of the weekend. Choosing from any of the four quarterbacks, you just have to pick the guy who will throw for the most yards in either game. Right now, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +130 odds to throw for the most yards against the Buffalo Bills. Coming in second is his counterpart Josh Allen, who is +250 to have the most passing yards this weekend. Rookie Jayden Daniels comes in third at +250 as well, and rounding out the list is longshot Jalen Hurts at +750 odds.
It makes sense that Mahomes would be the odds-on favorite for this market. He has been here before and has plenty of postseason experience against the Bills in the past. On top of that, Buffalo is probably the weakest passing defense left in the playoffs of the four teams. They ranked just 24th against the pass this season, and 21st in yards per play against. Still, the Chiefs passing attack has not exactly given us a lot of confidence in their ability to put up tons of air yards. Outside of Travis Kelce last week, the passing attack was pretty limited.
Allen will also have a plus matchup against a Kansas City defense that wasn’t much better against the pass this year, ranking 18th in the NFL through the air. They were certainly better at containing explosive plays, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed. Still, the two passing defenses in this game ranked in the bottom half of the league, so these two being the favorites to lead the weekend in passing yards is no shock. Still, I don’t think either of them are really worth a wager at their current prices. Both defenses know that the two quarterbacks are the biggest threat on each offense.
Daniels is tied with Allen right now at +250 to lead the weekend in passing yards, although the defense he is facing this weekend will be a far bigger challenge than either of the ones he has played thus far in the playoffs. Both Detroit and Tampa Bay ranked among the two worst defenses in the league against the pass, and the Lions were virtually an infirmary in their last game with so many injuries. Philadelphia owns the No. 1 ranked defense against the pass this season, while also ranking No. 1 in yards per play allowed. It is not going to be easy for him to light it up on the road against this defense.
That leads us to my favorite bet at the current price, which is the longshot in Jalen Hurts at +750 odds. He’s been horrendous lately, there is no question about that, and will face the No. 3 ranked passing defense in Washington. Normally, this would seem like a disaster waiting to happen, but I think he has a sneaky opportunity to have a great game. Washington is going to be focusing all of their attention on stopping RB Saquon Barkley, who has been unstoppable this season. I think that will give Hurts some serious chances in the passing attack to hit AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith for some big gains, and even Jahan Dotson against his former team.
I think the Eagles will use some play action, which is going to be deadly with Barkley in the backfield, and open up the passing attack. I am not as worried about Hurts’ apparent knee injury as some might be, and I think he will be fine. At +750, and with all the attention going to Barkley, I like Hurts to throw for the most yards this weekend.
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