Week 10 of the NFL season brings a mix of intriguing matchups that have drawn heavy action from bettors and sharp money alike. With Detroit emerging as a fan-favorite team, the Lions are once again the most heavily-backed team of the week, making their matchup with the Texans a key target for savvy bettors. We’ll also analyze how public money is shifting toward Pittsburgh as an underdog against Washington, and why Tampa Bay’s underdog role against San Francisco could be a smart play. Here’s a look at this week’s top sharp picks and betting insights to give you an edge.
Texans (6-3) +3.5 vs. Lions (7-1)
Keep an eye on this game, in particular, the health of WR Nico Collins. It is possible that he comes back this week, and his absence from this lineup has devastated the Texans as an offense. If he returns, which I am very much counting on here, I think the Texans have a great chance to upset Detroit.
The Lions are the public darling of the NFL, every single week they are getting an overwhelming amount of tickets and money. A high 89% of tickets and 88% of the money at BetMGM Sportsbook is on Detroit to cover, and to their credit, they have continued to cover spreads no matter the handle. However, there is once again no bigger decision this weekend for the books.
Christian Cipollini, who is a trading manager at BetMGM, was very blunt when discussing what the book thinks of this game: “There are 7 games on Sunday with favorites of 6+ points. We will be cheering for a few of those teams to lose. The Lions (7-1 ATS) are the most bet team to cover in Week 10 and the sportsbook needs the Texans to at least cover.”
Commanders (7-2) -2.5 vs. Steelers (6-2)
I never thought in a million years that I would be betting on the Washington Commanders again this season with their hype and bandwagon that has been growing to astronomical numbers, but it seems this week the tables have turned.
Shockingly, the Steelers are getting 70% of the money on the spread in this game, as well as 72% of the money on the moneyline at +130. Any time that there is a public underdog that is getting an overwhelming amount of support on the spread and moneyline, I am going to fade them.
Now, there could be a bunch of moneyline parlay support for the Commanders, but with them being such a short favorite against a public underdog, I would assume there won’t be a ton of love there. Outside of the Lions, the Steelers have the second highest handle of the weekend.
Bucs (4-5) +6.5 vs. 49ers (4-4)
I pretty much knew that I was going to be on Tampa Bay as soon as the season started, but now with all the Bucs injuries and the 49ers getting Christian McCaffery back, I know that I will be betting on them. I’d love to get a +7 here of course, and that could come as we get closer to kickoff and the public money starts really rolling into San Francisco.
Right now, a huge 87% of the spread money is on the 49ers in this game, and 67% of the moneyline cash is on them as well. This is a game where parlay liability is going to be absolutely massive, and I would imagine that there is a huge amount of them out there where 49ers ML is a key piece of the puzzle.
It’s certainly disgusting, but to be fair, the 49ers haven’t exactly been fantastic this year. QB Baker Mayfield has actually been quite good, and if San Francisco keeps scoring here with McCaffery back, I think he can keep up with them against an overrated defense.
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