As NFL Week 4 approaches, sharp bettors are finding value in a few unexpected places. While the public is heavy on popular underdogs like the Saints and Steelers, sharps are backing favorites like the Falcons and taking contrarian stances with the Colts. Understanding where the smart money is can give you an edge, especially when it goes against the grain of public perception. Here’s a breakdown of my sharp plays for Week 4 and where the biggest liabilities lie for the sportsbooks.
Falcons -2 vs. Saints
It isn’t that often when a favorite is the sharp play, as typically they get hammered by the public, but sometimes the situation is just right to take the chalk. New Orleans is coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles at home, a game in which they played the Eagles very close and lost near the end of the game. The Saints were -3 favorites in that game with all the hype that was surrounding them following two straight blowout wins, but they couldn’t live up to it.
Meanwhile, Atlanta lost to Kansas City at home, although you could certainly argue that they should have won the game. Just take the field goal near the end to make it 22-20, they stopped the Chiefs on their next drive, and got into field goal range. They would have won 23-22, but they opted to go for it instead of kicking when they were down 22-17.
As it stands today, the Saints are the most bet underdog of the entire weekend on the moneyline, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing. 81 percent of the bets and 64 percent of the handle are on their moneyline at +115. 59 percent of the bets are on their spread line of +2.5. They will be one of the most public teams this weekend, so I’ll gladly take Atlanta to win and cover at home.
Colts +1.5 vs. Steelers
I was very much expecting to be on this one as soon as I looked at the schedule for this week, and low and behold, that very much looks like it will be the case. Pittsburgh is out to a quick start, sitting at 3-0 to begin their season when many didn’t think that would be the case. They just beat down the Los Angeles Chargers 20-10, and that defense has been stifling to this point. The offense has done enough, but most importantly, they don’t turn the ball over much.
Indianapolis was lucky to win at home against a poorly coached Bears team last weekend. QB Anthony Richardson was dreadful again, passing for just 167 yards and two interceptions, with zero touchdowns. Luckily for him, the rushing attack did all the work, and his defense forced three Chicago turnovers. It was overall not a very impressive win for the Colts, and the public clearly does not believe in them.
A huge 75 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money is on Pittsburgh to cover here at -1.5, essentially winning the game. On the moneyline, it is just as lopsided, with 69 percent of bets and 70 percent of money on their side. The books are going to be huge Colts fans this weekend, and so am I.
Ravens ML vs. Bills
Another popular underdog this week for the betting public is the Buffalo Bills, who are 3-0 and coming off of the complete annihilation of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have looked brilliant thus far, the offense clicking under MVP frontrunner Josh Allen, and everyone seems to be back on this bandwagon after jumping off of it during the offseason. I like the Bills for future bets, but not so much in this game.
Baltimore is 1-2 and coming off of a win against Dallas where they nearly blew a huge fourth quarter lead once again. That has been an issue with the Ravens all season, and they very well could be 3-0 if more luck went their way. Whenever the public is backing an underdog, you can almost guarantee I’ll be on the other side.
I’ll leave you with this quote from BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini, talking about a couple of wagers this weekend: “As we approach kickoff, we expect Bills-Ravens on Sunday night to be one of the most bet games of the season. Lions-Seahawks will also be a focus for bettors on Monday. A Ravens cover and Seahawks upset would be great.”
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