Week 10 offers a fresh slate of NFL matchups, which means new opportunities in the player prop market. We’re targeting Jared Goff's pass attempts, D’Andre Swift's rushing yards, Najee Harris's rushing potential, and Tank Dell's receiving yards in what should be favorable situations. Let’s dive into why each of these picks provides value for this week’s action.
Lions QB Jared Goff Under 30.5 Pass Attempts vs. Texans (-125, BetMGM)
Jared Goff has thrown over 30 passes one time in eight starts this season (55 in Week 2 against the pass funnel Buccaneers). In his other starts, here have been his attempt totals: 28 (with OT), 23, 18, 25, 25, 15, 22. This Lions offense is centered around the run and feeding David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs behind their elite offensive line and I’m not quite sure why this number is so high. Houston’s offense has looked stale over their last three games and Nico Collins isn’t ready to suit up while Stefon Diggs is out for the season.
In order to force the Lions into a shootout or get far enough ahead for Goff and the passing game to be the focal point, Houston is going to have to score a lot of points, which is simply not something I’m confident in them to do right now. I’ll be on the under and expect this to hit for the 7th consecutive time. This might be the biggest edge I’ve seen in any prop market all season long.
Bears RB D’Andre Swift Over 71.5 Rushing Yards vs. Patriots (-114, FanDuel)
As a Patriots fan, it pains me to report that this defense has regressed mightily in general, but especially against the run under Jerod Mayo. Allowing 124.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (2nd-most in the NFL), New England has also allowed 4.7 yards per carry (7th-most in the NFL), which sets the stage for D’Andre Swift to have a solid outing in Week 10.
The Bears traded away Khalil Herbert to the Bengals and will roll with a backfield consisting of Swift and Roschon Johnson moving forward. Swift saw 73% and then 62% of the snaps over the last two weeks while Johnson saw 27% and 38%, respectively. (Last game was skewed towards Johnson due to a lopsided loss.) I expect Swift to command the snap count and get the bulk of the carries like he has for the entire season. He’s gone over this 71.5-yard mark in four of the last five games and has gotten 16 or more carries in all of those contests. I love his upside in this spot in what is a crucial game for the Bears (4-4), who are desperate to stay in the playoff hunt.
Steelers RB Najee Harris Over 62.5 Rushing Yards vs. Commanders (-117, BetRivers)
Not only will Najee Harris be rested coming off a bye week, but he’s also coming off three consecutive 100-plus yard rushing performances after racking up 106 against the Raiders, 102 against the Jets and 114 against the Giants. Now the workhorse gets an awesome matchup against a Commanders defense that hasn’t been able to stop opposing running backs from gaining efficient yards all year long. In fact, Washington has allowed an NFL-worst 5.23 yards per carry to opposing running backs and has gotten gashed with huge individual performances by guys like Swift (18 carries, 129 yards), Derrick Henry (24 carries, 132 yards), James Conner (18 carries, 104 yards) and Devin Singletary (16 carries, 95 yards), among others.
To this point, Harris has racked up 36 broken or missed tackles, which ranks 3rd in the NFL, so he’s not easy to bring down whatsoever. Pittsburgh will want to employ their traditional ground-and-pound philosophy and keep the ball out of Jayden Daniels’ hands as much as possible and a way to do that is to feed their RB1 the pigskin with volume. I love this number for Harris and will consider laddering it up to the century mark.
Cardinals RB James Conner Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114, BetRivers)
This is sneakily an incredible matchup for Conner. Per CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs, Conner leads the entire NFL with 54 missed tackles, which ranks 23 above the next-best players (Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson with 31). The Jets happen to rank dead-last in tackle rate on running back runs and Jets HC Jeff Ulbrich even made it clear to his team that they’ll need to make a concerted effort to stop Arizona’s workhorse. He told reporters this week, “We did a whole tackling presentation on [James Conner], which we never do, on how to tackle this guy. He is unique in a lot of ways, it’s going to be a great challenge. If you don’t stop him, you don’t stop the Cardinals.”
Colts WR Adonai Mitchell Over 30.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-113, FanDuel)
With Michael Pittman out, this is going to be a great opportunity for Mitchell to show off his skills with substantial playing time. Catching passes from Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson is a plus and his advanced numbers have been insane. He ranks 1st in Fantasy Points’ Average Separation Score, 4th in ESPN’s Open Score and owns the 4th-highest aDOT in the NFL with a co-league-best 36% targets per route run. He’s only gone over this yardage number one time all year due to his lack of playing time, but this is the week where he’s going to put all the pieces together.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Falcons (-102, FanDuel)
The Saints will be without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson this week, which will make Kamara one of Derek Carr’s top targets in the passing game. Over his last three games with Carr under center, Kamara has attracted nine, eight and nine targets for seven, six and six catches and it’s important to note that Atlanta’s zone defensive scheme should play right into his skill set as a pass-catcher. The Falcons have allowed 6.0 receptions (4th-most) on 7.0 targets (5th-most) to opposing running backs this season and it wouldn’t shock me if Kamara catches 10 passes in this situation, especially as a 3.5-point home dog.