Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season, where we’re diving deep into the trenches of the betting board. This week, we’re backing some of the ugliest underdogs the league has to offer: the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys. While these teams might look like disasters on paper, sharp bettors know that fading the public and riding with the house is often a winning strategy. Let’s break down why these underwhelming squads could deliver surprising value.
Raiders (2-8) +6 vs. Broncos (6-5)
It’s Week 12 in the NFL, and once again, we have another beautiful slate of terrible football teams that we are going to be backing. Everyone has a different approach on how they want to go about betting “sharp” plays, but for me, I like to find the teams that are the biggest liability for the house. There is a reason that casinos continue to keep popping up and sports betting is more popular than ever, and that is because the house always wins in the end. If you align yourself with them, you are going to find success, which is evident in me being up 30 units in the NFL this season.
Over at BetMGM right now, our friend John Ewing is always happy to share the latest betting splits with us. With these, we can see where the money is going on every side and total of the Week 12 NFL slate, and bet accordingly. I would like to note that this is being written on Friday, and these numbers can all certainly change by Sunday. However, generally, I try to give out picks here that I do not see flipping for the house.
Las Vegas is a +6 underdog at home to the Denver Broncos, a team that has won three of their last five games and is coming off a blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone loves this this week against the lowly Raiders, who are 2-8 on the year and have now lost five straight games. They fired their offensive coordinator, have a terrible head coach, and have no long term answer at the quarterback position. Who would want to back them?
I would, actually. Over at BetMGM, a whopping 95% of cash on the spread is backing Denver to cover. Another 72% of cash is backing them on the moneyline, so every which way you look at it, there is some massive liability on the Broncos. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Las Vegas win this game.
Giants (2-8) +6 vs. Buccaneers (4-6)
I told you we are going to continue betting on the most disgusting teams imaginable, and hopefully, they can keep cashing for us. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants will meet up in New Jersey for a matchup that no one is going to want to watch or care about, unless you are a fan of one of these teams.
Tampa Bay has lost four straight games after such a promising start to their season, but injuries and inconsistencies have brought them to this 4-6 record through 10 games. Still, the public perception of them is leaps and bounds higher than that of the Giants, a team that absolutely everyone hates and is universally considered a certified disaster.
QB Daniel Jones has been released. That’s how horrendous he was and how much the organization hates him for robbing them blind, although it is their own fault for being dumb enough to offer that money in the first place. Now, Tommy Devito will get a chance to start again. You may remember him from various memes last season when he replaced an injured Jones. He’s Italian and apparently that makes him a mobster for some reason, but he sucks at football.
Point being, 89% of the cash is on Tampa Bay to cover the spread, and they will be involved in a billion moneyline parlays as well. The house will be rooting for the Italian stallion, so we’ll also hold our nose and take them.
Cowboys (3-7) +11 at Commanders (7-4)
Hello darkness, my old friend. I’d wager that it is nearly impossible to bet on a trio of teams more disgusting than the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys this season. All of them are complete dumpster fires, run by the most incompetent people, and we actually will place real money on them. However, as I keep trying to preach, this is how you bet on the NFL if you want long-term success. The obvious play is very rarely as obvious as it seems.
I could get more entertainment out of watching C-SPAN on Sunday afternoon than I could watching this Dallas team play. It truly is an understatement to say they are trash, especially since they continue to trot out QB Cooper Rush instead of giving the far younger Trey Lance a chance. It makes no sense to me, the team is 3-7 and going nowhere. Lance was a top three pick, and while he probably sucks, you should at least see if you can unlock something in him that made him go that high.
Know that 85% of the cash right now is on Washington to cover this massive spread. I don’t know a soul who is backing the Cowboys after five straight losses against this Commanders team on the road, but I also haven’t been exactly impressed with this Washington club as of late. Maybe Dallas can stay within the number for us.
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