Week 13 of the NFL season delivers another action-packed Sunday slate, and as always, sharp bettors can find value in underdog opportunities and fading public trends. This week, we’re focusing on three matchups where public perception and line movement present enticing betting angles. Can the 49ers bounce back against the Bills? Will the Jets’ underrated defense hold the Seahawks in check? Can the Patriots find their footing at home against the Colts? Let’s break down these best bets and where the value lies.
49ers (5-6) +7 at Bills (9-2): -110, Caesars
I think this line is a major overreaction to San Francisco’s blowout loss last weekend to the Green Bay Packers, and I would like to play against that. This line also has a decent chance to come down a lot if the injury news from the 49ers is better than expected later this week, and if that is the case, I expect it to be closer to +3.5 or +4. Getting the key number of +7 with a team as talented and well coached as San Francisco seems like a gift to me, even on the road with injury uncertainty. Although, no one seems to agree with me early on.
Just 12% of the cash right now is on the 49ers spread, with an overwhelming majority of money backing Buffalo. The Bills have covered four of their last five games, and they just continue to win, so it is no shock that the public is all over them here. The perception of the 49ers has sunk this season, and with the injuries, everyone is ready to fade them. The sportsbooks are going to be huge 49ers fans on Sunday night, and the house is going to need them to cover. Plus, Buffalo has a matchup with the Lions upcoming, and this is a perfect spot where they could be looking ahead.
Jets (3-8) +2 vs. Seahawks (6-5): -110, BetMGM
Seattle has won three of their last five games, and after beating the Arizona Cardinals last weekend, they are sitting in the drivers seat for the NFC West division. The stock on them right now has never been higher, and when that is the case, it is time to start selling. It just so happens they are facing a team that the public hates on Sunday in the New York Jets, who are 3-8 on the season and have lost four of their last five games. The expectations were so high for New York, and they failed miserably, with the public perception of them being a toxic mess of a dumpster fire.
That also is a perfect time to buy low on them here at home while selling some Seattle stock. Just 21% of the money is on New York here, which is less than shocking considering their situation. The sportsbooks are going to be cheering on the Jets, which means I am going to be as well. For all of their faults, the Jets defense is still ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the pass, so it won’t be easy for QB Geno Smith to sling it on the road here. They can be had on the ground, but the Seahawks have been terrible running the football this season, ranking 28th in rushing yards.
Patriots (3-9) +3 vs. Colts (5-7): -115, BetRivers
Despite losing four of their last five games, the Indianapolis Colts are getting a lot of love here from the public on the road in Foxborough. As of right now, just 23% of the money is on the hometown Patriots to cover this spread, which is only a field goal at some books. New England is 3-9 this season with a rookie QB starting in Drake Maye, and they looked downright terrible last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. They have lost three of their last five games and generally, people think they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
However, there is no chance that I want to be laying points on the road with Anthony Richardson and a 5-7 Colts team. Both of these teams are awful, so why would I lay points with one of them? Indianapolis is a disaster on defense, ranking 27th DVOA against both the pass and the run. Their offense is 24th in passing and 17th in rushing, so they don’t have a single unit that is even above average in the league. Granted, New England doesn’t either, but they are at home and getting a field goal.
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