Monday Night Football in Week 16 features a classic showdown between the Saints and Packers at Lambeau Field. With freezing temperatures and potential snow in the forecast, expect the game to lean heavily on the ground attack. Packers RB Josh Jacobs is poised for a dominant performance, while Saints RB Kendre Miller faces an uphill battle in a tough matchup. Let’s dive into the top player prop bets and betting insights for this highly anticipated primetime clash.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 Rushing Yards vs. Saints (-113, FanDuel)
It’s going to be frigid (and potentially snowy) at Lambeau Field on Monday night and that bodes well for Josh Jacobs and Green Bay’s rushing attack as 14-point favorites. Ripping off 94 yards and a touchdown off 26 carries in a win over the Seahawks last week, Jacobs gets an awesome matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed 4.86 yards per carry (3rd-most) to opposing running backs this season. New Orleans’ defense also ranks 2nd-worst in PFF run defense grade and 3rd-worst in run defense DVOA.
Not only is it impressive that Jacobs has accumulated 1,147 yards (3rd-most entering Week 16) and 13 touchdowns, but it’s the way in which he runs that has me jazzed up about him this week. He ranks 2nd among running backs in yards after contact (904), 2nd in missed tackles forced (60) and has been explosive, ripping off 28 runs of double-digit yards, which ranks 5th at the position. At 10-4, the Packers have shown no signs of resting Jacobs and have not made it clear if he will face any restrictions down the stretch heading into the playoffs, but he’s been pretty outspoken about how great he feels at this point in the long season. "I feel great, no bruises, no nothing right now so I feel great. - If I was battling something right now I would probably say be precautious but I feel great,” he told reporters this week.
All in all, it’s hard not to love Jacobs in this matchup and in these conditions and I don’t think 150 rushing yards is out of the question.
Saints RB Kendre Miller Under 54.5 Rushing Yards vs. Packers (-115, DraftKings)
In Thursday’s presser, Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi revealed that his team is going to take a committee approach at running back with Alvin Kamara out this week. “It will have to be a committee approach. All those guys are gonna get work, and will have to pick up the slack for what we’re losing there with Alvin.” That means Kendre Miller, Jamaal Williams and Jordan Mims are all likely going to see touches and New Orleans will ride the hot hand. Rizzi added, “Between Kendre and Jamaal and Jordan Mims, like I said, I think you’ll see all those guys at some point during the game in the offensive backfield. I don’t think there’s going to be one guy that gets 40 carries. But I do think it’s gonna be a committee approach, and I think we gotta do a great job of accentuating the positives of each of those players… Let’s lean on Jamaal’s experience, let’s lean on Kendre’s last couple weeks, see if we can’t continue that trend.”
Miller rushed 10 times for 32 yards and a touchdown against the Giants and then nine times for 46 yards against the Commanders over the last couple weeks with Kamara active, but given the threat of him losing carries to Williams and Mims and the fact that the Saints are 14-point underdogs with Spencer Rattler starting under center, I’m definitely not going over 54.5 rushing yards. At 5-9 on the year, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s Williams who sees most of the touches as he seeks revenge on his former team at Lambeau Field.