There are 16 winless teams in the NFL after Week 1. That number will shrink by at least six in Week 2 with six matchups between two teams that lost last week. It’s worth noting that dating back to 2003, the underdog is 50-25-3 (67) ATS when two winless teams play in Week 2, per BetMGM’s John Ewing. Based on that trend, four of the six underdogs in this week’s winless-versus-winless matchups should win against the spread. Here are the four underdogs I’m banking on to win against the spread as an underdog in a game between two winless teams.
Packers (+3) vs. Colts
The Packers aren’t going to have Jordan Love, but they will be at home. Green Bay is 6-2 against the spread as a home underdog since 2018. The Packers also showcased a productive rushing attack in the loss against the Eagles last week. Meanwhile, the Indy defense was shredded by Joe Mixon for 159 yards on 30 carries in a loss to the Texans last week. In that loss, Anthony Richardson only completed nine of his 19 passes despite some impressive throws among those nine completions. Those aren’t signs of a team that can win and cover as a road favorite at Lambeau.
Titans (+3.5) vs. Jets
Did the Jets do anything last week to warrant being a road favorite this week? They obviously had a tough matchup against the 49ers, but Aaron Rodgers ended the game with a 51.1 QBR while Breece Hall averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. There is a lot of work left to do for the Jets to meet expectations. Are they ready to cover more than a field goal on the road against a Tennessee defense that didn’t give up an offensive touchdown last week? The Titans are surely flawed as well, but they can keep what figures to be an ugly, low-scoring game within a field goal.
Giants (+1.5) at Commanders
It doesn’t get much uglier than what Daniel Jones did last week. On the other hand, the Washington defense gave up nearly 400 yards of offense against the Bucs. The Washington offense is also quite limited with Jayden Daniels leading the team in rushing last week while running backs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson were the team’s two leading receivers. Those are clear red flags for the Commanders heading into Week 2. Also, keep in mind the G-Men have gone 7-2-1 straight up against Washington over the last five years. They’ve also won five of their last six trips to Washington.
Rams (+1.5) at Cardinals
Since the start of the 2017 season, the Rams have won 13 of 15 head-to-head games with the Cardinals. Even worse, Arizona hasn’t won a home game against the Rams since 2014. Yet, the Cardinals are somehow favored in this game mostly by virtue of being the home team. Outside of a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Cardinals did nothing in the second half last week in Buffalo after a fast start. The Rams, meanwhile, went toe to toe with the Lions on the road, so they should have no problem continuing their decade of success in the desert.
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