As the NFL season reaches Week 8, sharp bettors have their sights set on a few key underdogs. With insights from betting splits, we analyze where the sharp money is flowing for Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas, breaking down why these under-the-radar picks are drawing big bets.
Browns (1-6) +8.5 vs. Ravens (5-2)
The Baltimore Ravens are on a roll right now, winners of five straight games after losing their first two games of the season. With reigning MVP Lamar Jackson leading the charge with RB Derrick Henry bruising to be the NFL’s leading rusher, the betting public is all over the Ravens against the 1-6 Cleveland Browns. They are one of the most popular bets this week, which makes them a prime target for sharp bettors to fade.
Our friend John Ewing, who works data and PR over at BetMGM sportsbook, has been kind enough to share with us the betting splits at his sportsbook for Week 8 in the NFL. With this information, we can see where the tickets and money are flowing for every game of the weekend right now. Perhaps most unshocking, the Ravens are getting 69% of the bets on the spread in this game.
However, despite just 31% of the tickets being written on Cleveland, 46% of the handle is on the Browns in this game. This means the larger and more substantial bets are on that side. Perhaps people are underestimating how much of an upgrade Jameis Winston might be over Deshaun Watson. If I said that 5 years ago, people would have said I’m nuts. This is a large spread in a divisional game at home for the Browns. I think they can keep the game within the margin.
Jaguars (2-5) +4 vs. Packers (5-2)
Green Bay is now feeling the public love after a somewhat rocky start to their season, and most of this has to do with QB Jordan Love being back in the lineup. They defeated the Houston Texans last week and held their signal-caller C.J. Stroud to under 100 yards passing, which would get anyone’s attention. Now, they get to take on the 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars who are coming back to the states after spending two weeks over in London.
Taking a look at the latest betting splits on this game, it is very clear immediately where the big money bettors are in this game. While the Packers are getting an overwhelming 81% of the tickets written on the spread, the Jags are getting 59% of the money on only 19% of the tickets. That is an unusually huge gap between the tickets and money that you just don’t see very often.
However, despite more money being on the Jaguars spread, the books will still likely be rooting for them this weekend. The Packers are likely a part of a large amount of moneyline parlays at every book, and a Jags win would knock a lot of those out. No one expects Jacksonville to win this game, which is why I think they have a pretty good chance to do so.
Raiders (2-5) +9.5 vs. Chiefs (6-0)
The Kansas City Chiefs are somehow undefeated, despite QB Patrick Mahomes playing pretty poorly this season. The superstar signal-caller has thrown for six touchdowns compared to eight interceptions and is off to the worst start of his career statistically. However, he is off to the best start of his career record wise at 6-0. These things generally wouldn’t correlate, but they are in large part to how dominant the Chiefs defense has been in bailing out Kansas City. If their defense wasn’t so good, they would likely have a losing record.
Of course, it is still Mahomes and Andy Reid and Travis Kelce with Taylor Swift, so the Chiefs will always be public as long as they are still on the team. Know that 55% of the bets and 54% of the money is on the Chiefs to cover this large spread. Interestingly, the total is very low at 41.5, so clearly the books see a lower-scoring game.
I think that Las Vegas can hang around here. I don’t see much scoring being done, and even against the Raiders defense, I think the Chiefs may struggle at least somewhat. I’ll take the 9.5 points with the Raiders, as this spread has been moving in the downward direction as the week has gone on.
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