The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs has come to an end, and now we look forward to the Divisional Round, where we have a lot of exciting matchups to analyze. One of those contests is between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs, which is actually the first game on the docket for us Saturday afternoon. The Texans managed to defy the doubters and silence the haters last weekend by thoroughly dominating the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend 32-13 as a +3 underdog. The Chiefs had a bye week as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, so they will be well rested for this contest.
The game opened with Kansas City being a -7.5 favorite at BetMGM, which was very quickly bet up to -8, which is where it stands now. Clearly, the books don’t think this game is going to be a very close contest, and the Chiefs are an overwhelming favorite to win this game. However, perhaps the most interesting aspect of the opening lines in this game is in the total, which is set at a very surprising number.
The total opened at 42.5, which also received a lot of attention right away, quickly moving down to 41.5. Now, many of you see that and think about how astoundingly low that total is in this game. You would be right, as if the game closes at this current number, it would be the lowest total of any playoff game Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has played in. He’s started 18 playoff games, so that is pretty telling about what the books think about offense in this game.
There are several reasons that this total is as low as it is, and it doesn’t have to do entirely with the teams involved in the contest. If you take a look at the latest forecast for Kansas City on Saturday, there is a pretty decent chance that some snow could roll in. Whenever that is the case, the total is going to plummet because of the possibility of terrible conditions for the game. In addition to that, it is also forecasted to be quite windy, with winds over 10 mph possible. That can make passing the football a bigger challenge and kicking it as well, leading to potentially fewer points.
While the weather plays a role, neither Houston nor Kansas City have exactly been offensive juggernauts this season. The Texans ranked 21st in yards per play, and it is pretty well known that QB C.J. Stroud was not as productive this season as he was in his rookie year. They have once again really struggled to protect him, ranking 30th in sacks allowed, which continues to hurt the offense.
The Chiefs have not been the typical Chiefs in 2024-25. They ranked 23rd in yards per play, and really lacked any kind of big-play threat down the field that they have had in the past. Most surprisingly, considering they have Mahomes at QB, they ranked 23rd in Red Zone Efficiency. That isn’t something we are used to seeing from a Mahomes-led team, but they had some serious issues with a short field.
We’ll see if this total is warranted this weekend, and these two offenses indeed struggle to score points.