Thursday Night Football tonight will feature an AFC North clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, with the home team entering as a +3.5 underdog right now at BetMGM. These two teams have gone in completely opposite directions this season, with the Steelers shocking everyone with an 8-2 record and leading the division, while Cleveland is back to being the Browns once again at 2-8.
This is an obvious mismatch on paper, but we all know that matters very little when it comes to covering the spread. The weather for this game is expected to be somewhat of a disaster, with wind, snow and/or freezing rain expected to impact the contest. As a result, we have a total tonight set at 36.5 at most books, and scoring is going to be at a premium in all likelihood. Or we could have a million mistakes and the game goes over the total on turnover scoring. You just never know.
Right now over at BetMGM, our friend John Ewing was kind enough to share the betting splits for tonight's game to see where the money and tickets are flowing. This is incredibly important, as we can find out where the sportsbook will be positioned in this game, which is the side that we want to be on. In the end, the house is always going to win, and John shared a very interesting data point earlier today.
The Steelers are 8-2 ATS this season, which is tied for the best ATS record in the NFL. To no one’s surprise, 90% of bets are on Steelers -3.5 at Browns. What could go wrong? In reality, many things could go wrong, and probably will go wrong for those bettors. In addition to the public squares being all over the Steelers tonight, a whopping 84% of the money is also on Pittsburgh to cover the number.
The common misconception to identify “sharp” plays is to find the wager that has a lower bet threshold and a higher amount of cash, meaning that the tickets on that side are worth more so that must mean that sharps are on it. It could also be that a bunch of rich clowns who have no idea what they are doing have money to blow.
Instead, I have a different approach to finding the sharp side of a game. Find out which side is getting the least amount of total cash bet on them. More often than not, the books are going to make a profit on these bigger games at the end of the day, so I like to position myself on the side that is taking the least total handle. Tonight, the Browns are getting just 16% of the cash on the spread and 11% on the moneyline. Always keep checking this, as public money really starts to flow in closer to game time.
The total is interesting, as 50% of the cash is on the over and 50% of the cash is on the under. Generally, the public hammers the over in these island primetime games, but the weather conditions tonight might change their opinion for once. I’ll be interested to see where the money goes as we get closer to game time.
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