Week 15's Monday Night Football doubleheader features two intriguing matchups: the Bears vs. Vikings and Falcons vs. Raiders. With divisional rivalries and playoff implications on the line, there are plenty of opportunities to capitalize on player prop bets. From passing yardage props for Caleb Williams to rushing attempts for Bijan Robinson, here’s a breakdown of the best bets for Monday night.
Bears QB Caleb Williams Over 215.5 Passing Yards vs. Vikings (-115, BetMGM)
Last time these two teams played back on November 24, Williams went 32-for-47 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions en route to a 30-27 overtime loss. Despite the disappointing result, Williams was able to effectively move the ball downfield against Minnesota’s defense and navigated the blitzing and pressure from the Brian Flores-led defense. Overall, Williams has gone over this passing yards mark in three of his last four games, including that one against the Vikings, and Minnesota’s defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to rack up 270.8 passing yards per game (3rd-most in the NFL). The Vikings have also allowed the 2nd-most completions (24.5) and most pass attempts (38.2) to opposing quarterbacks this year, so the matchup can’t get much better.
Bears WR DJ Moore Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Vikings (+106, BetRivers)
Opposing wide receivers have racked up the most receptions (14.9), 2nd-most targets (23.7) and most receiving yards (192.4) against the Vikings this season and in the first matchup between these teams, he caught seven passes on seven targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. The way to beat this Vikings defense is with quick, short passes and since Thomas Brown was elevated to interim head coach, the team has schemed ways to get Moore the football, specifically in the screen game. Over the last four weeks, Moore has caught seven, seven, eight and six passes on seven, seven, 16 and eight targets in those contests. Overall, he has an 8.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT), so I want to target his receptions rather than receiving yards for some extra safety. At plus money, I love this.
Bears WR Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Vikings (-120, BetMGM)
Since I love Williams’ outlook in this matchup, I also love both Moore and Allen, who I expect to be his two highest-targeted assets. Allen ate in this matchup when the teams squared off the first time, catching nine of 15 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. With a 9.5-yard aDOT, I don’t want to go over his receiving yards and would much rather prefer going over his receptions prop, as with Moore above. Allen has made his entire NFL career thriving out of the slot and I’m going to go right back to him in the rematch.
Vikings WR Jordan Addison Over 52.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bears (-125, BetMGM)
The last time these teams faced off, the Bears successfully shut down Justin Jefferson, but Addison absolutely went nuclear with eight catches on nine targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he had the best game of his young career with eight catches on 12 targets for 133 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons and will enter this game with a ton of confidence. Jefferson will likely see plenty of double-teams once again and Sam Darnold has not shown any hesitation finding Addison in single coverage or navigating through zones. I absolutely love this number for a guy who is playing the best football of his young career.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Raiders (-107, BetRivers)
At 6-7, the Falcons are officially in must-win mode and given how awful Kirk Cousins has looked over the past four games (a four-game losing streak), I expect Atlanta to lean on their running game and, most notably, Robinson. Racking up 26 and then 22 carries over the last two weeks, Robinson has logged over 17.5 carries in four of the last five games. Tyler Allgeier is going to steal some attempts and be on the field, but this is firmly Robinson’s backfield and he’s the true workhorse back. As -5.5 favorites on the road, Atlanta should be playing from ahead and I expect him to get fed all game long. Due to what I expect to be a run-heavy game plan for both teams, I don’t love any player props except this one for this entire game.
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