The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club, taking place from March 6-9, promises to deliver another exciting chapter in PGA TOUR history. As one of the most prestigious tournaments on the schedule, this event draws the best golfers from around the world, all vying for a share of the $20 million purse and the coveted red cardigan sweater. With a history of thrilling finishes and a challenging course setup, Bay Hill provides the perfect backdrop for high-level competition. In this guide, we’ll explore the top betting options for outright winners, finishing positions, and head-to-head matchups, alongside important statistics and course history to help you make the most informed wagers.
Course and Tournament Information
The Arnold Palmer Invitational, hosted annually at Bay Hill Golf Club in Orlando, Florida, has been a cornerstone of the PGA TOUR since 1979. Sponsored by Mastercard, this prestigious event draws the game's top talent, offering a substantial $20 million purse and 700 FedEx Cup points to the winner. Over the years, the tournament has gone through various name changes, but since 2007, it has proudly carried Palmer’s name in honor of the legendary golfer. In 2014, the PGA Tour elevated its prestige by granting the champion a three-year exemption, aligning it with elite tournaments such as the World Golf Championships and The Memorial Tournament. Since 2017, winners have also been awarded a signature red cardigan sweater, a nod to Palmer’s iconic style following his passing in 2016.
As one of only five PGA Tour events with "invitational" status, the Arnold Palmer Invitational features a more exclusive field, with around half of the players compared to the 140-150 golfers seen in most full-field tournaments. This designation allows greater flexibility in determining participants and eliminates open qualifying, making it one of the most selective stops on the tour.
Bay Hill’s demanding par-72 course stretches 7,466 yards and presents a challenging mix of long par 5s, tough par 3s, and narrow fairways lined with Bermudagrass and Ryegrass. The course has seen some legendary performances, with Payne Stewart still holding the tournament record of 264 from 1987. The final stretch, particularly holes 16 through 18, has produced some of the event’s most thrilling moments, as players must contend with firm greens and unpredictable wind conditions. Weather can play a major role, as seen in recent winning scores—Scottie Scheffler claimed victory at 15-under par in 2023, but in 2021, the winning score was just 5-under.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second of three legacy signature events on the PGA TOUR, following the Genesis Invitational, hosted by Tiger Woods, and preceding the Jack Nicklaus-hosted Memorial Tournament in May. Unlike other signature events that do not have a cut, the API implements a cut after 36 holes to the low 50 players and ties, along with anyone within 10 strokes of the lead. The winner takes home a $4 million payday, the largest prize among signature events, surpassing the $3.6 million awarded in others. Whether for its rich history, high stakes, or dramatic finishes, the Arnold Palmer Invitational remains one of the most prestigious and anticipated tournaments on the PGA TOUR calendar.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds
The 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club is set to feature a highly competitive field, with the latest odds from BetMGM highlighting the tournament’s biggest contenders. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler leads the way as the clear favorite at +350, aiming to secure back-to-back victories after his impressive win last year. Rory McIlroy, a former champion at Bay Hill, follows at +850, while rising star Ludvig Åberg is listed at +1200 as he continues his rapid rise in the golf world.
Other top contenders include Xander Schauffele at +1800, alongside a trio of elite ball-strikers—Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay—all sitting at +2000. Past Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and England’s Tommy Fleetwood are both listed at +2500, followed by Tony Finau at +3300. A strong group of competitors at +4000 includes Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, and Will Zalatoris, all of whom are more than capable of making a deep run. Meanwhile, Maverick McNealy and Sepp Straka, each at +4500, offer intriguing long-shot value.
With a $20 million purse on the line and Bay Hill’s notoriously difficult setup challenging even the best players in the world, this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational promises to be a thrilling showcase of skill and resilience.
Previous Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners
The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Club has a rich history of champions, with some of golf’s biggest names etching their names into the tournament’s legacy. Scottie Scheffler is the reigning champion, having claimed his second victory at Bay Hill in 2024 with a dominant five-stroke win over Wyndham Clark, finishing at 15-under-par. This marked Scheffler’s second win in three years, as he also captured the title in 2022 with a one-stroke victory over Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, and Viktor Hovland.
In 2023, Kurt Kitayama emerged victorious, outlasting Harris English and Rory McIlroy by one stroke with a winning score of 9-under. The previous year, Bryson DeChambeau (-11) edged Lee Westwood by one shot in 2021, while Tyrrell Hatton secured his first PGA TOUR victory at Bay Hill in 2020, posting a gritty 4-under score in tough conditions to beat Marc Leishman by a single stroke.
The list of past champions includes major winners and legends of the sport. Rory McIlroy claimed the 2018 title at 18-under, holding off Bryson DeChambeau, while Francesco Molinari won in 2019 at -12, two shots ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick. Jason Day (2016), Vijay Singh (2007), Ernie Els (2010), and Martin Laird (2011) are also among the notable past winners.
Of course, no player has dominated this event quite like Tiger Woods, who has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational a record eight times, including back-to-back victories in 2012 and 2013. His final win at Bay Hill came in 2013, where he defeated Justin Rose by two strokes at -13.
With a $20 million purse and a $4 million winner’s share, the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational is set to deliver another chapter of drama and excitement at one of the PGA TOUR’s most iconic venues.
Important Statistics at Bay Hill
Success at Bay Hill in the Arnold Palmer Invitational requires a well-rounded game, with key stats being Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP), Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT), and Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ARG). Accurate iron play and distance off the tee are crucial, as the course's small, firm greens penalize missed shots. Strong short-game skills are essential due to thick rough and tough greenside conditions. Putting is critical on fast Bermuda greens, and Par 5 scoring is key for birdies and eagles. Bogey avoidance is also vital due to the course's challenges, including water and wind. Experience at Bay Hill is valuable, as players with multiple appearances often perform better. Historical trends highlight the importance of approach shots from long distances, with about 30% coming from 200+ yards. Despite large greens, Greens in Regulation remain low, so short-game proficiency remains important. The course demands both solid driving distance and good second-shot play, especially from thick rough.
Outright Betting Picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational
Scottie Scheffler To Win (+350, BetMGM)
Scottie Scheffler enters the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational as one of the most compelling picks, boasting an impressive track record at Bay Hill. He has won two of the last three years and has gained the most strokes at the event over the past five years. In 2023, Scheffler finished T4 and was T15 in 2020, consistently showcasing his ability to perform well on this challenging course. His all-around game, especially his excellent approach play and solid scrambling, makes him an ideal fit for Bay Hill, where precision and versatility are key to success.
Scheffler's calm demeanor and mental toughness set him apart from the competition. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is known for its tough conditions—thick rough, fast Bermuda greens, and unpredictable weather—and Scheffler’s ability to stay composed under pressure gives him a significant edge. Despite a "slow" start to his 2025 season (for his standards) with finishes of T9, T25, and T3, Scheffler remains the prohibitive favorite due to his proven ability to thrive in difficult environments. Given his track record at Bay Hill and his all-around consistency, he’s poised to contend for the title once again this year.
Rory McIlroy To Win (+850, BetMGM)
Rory McIlroy is a top contender for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a stellar record at Bay Hill. In his nine starts at this event, McIlroy has notched six top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2018. Over the past five years, he has gained the second most strokes at the tournament, further solidifying his status as one of the course’s most consistent performers. While he finished T21 last year, his previous success here speaks to his ability to navigate the challenges of Bay Hill.
McIlroy’s game is a perfect fit for the demands of this course. His powerful driving and precise iron play give him an advantage on Bay Hill's long par 4s and par 5s, where both distance and accuracy off the tee are key. Additionally, his strong ball-striking allows him to approach the challenging greens with confidence. With a solid short game and a putting stroke that ranks among the best on tour, McIlroy is equipped to handle the tricky greens at Bay Hill. His 2.162 SG:Total leads the PGA Tour early on this season, further proving his all-around strength and making him a strong favorite to contend for the title.
Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+2500, BetMGM)
Hideki Matsuyama is a strong value pick for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, as his game aligns perfectly with the demands of Bay Hill. The course requires a combination of driving distance, long iron proximity, and a reliable short game—skills that are among Matsuyama’s strengths. His ability to hit accurate long irons and maintain consistency around the greens has made him a top performer at Bay Hill, with three top-20 finishes in the last four years.
Matsuyama has also shown excellent form this season, with no missed cuts in six starts and four top-25 finishes. He currently ranks 1st in scrambling (73.19%), 6th in SG: Total, and 17th in both SG: Approach to Green and scoring average. These stats reflect his well-rounded game and ability to perform under pressure, particularly on a challenging course like Bay Hill. Given his combination of strong ball-striking and exceptional short-game skills, Matsuyama is primed for another strong showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tommy Fleetwood To Win (+2500, BetMGM)
Tommy Fleetwood is an intriguing pick for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with his game built to thrive at Bay Hill. Fleetwood ranks 1st in SG: Approach to Green (1.178), which is a crucial stat for success at this course, known for its small, firm greens. His ability to consistently hit greens is also evident, ranking 5th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 1st in Proximity, allowing him to set up birdie opportunities on the challenging layout.
Additionally, Fleetwood ranks 8th in SG: Total, showcasing his all-around game, while his 24th in Putting Average and 19th in Birdie Average demonstrate that he’s capable of converting those opportunities when they arise. With a strong approach game, solid putting, and an ability to make birdies, Fleetwood is well-equipped to navigate Bay Hill’s challenges and could make a serious run at the title.
Sungjae Im (+4000, BetMGM)
Sungjae Im is an excellent value pick for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, having posted impressive results at Bay Hill in the past. In six starts, Im’s worst finish is T-21, and he has gained the 3rd most strokes at the event over the last five years. His well-rounded game makes him a strong fit for Bay Hill, where accuracy off the tee and solid iron play are essential. Im’s ability to hit greens in regulation gives him a significant advantage on this tough course.
Beyond his ball-striking, Im’s short game and scrambling ability are vital for tackling Bay Hill’s tricky greens. His consistency and mental toughness make him well-suited for the pressure-filled conditions, allowing him to minimize mistakes and stay competitive throughout the round. With his strong all-around game and ability to perform under pressure, Im is poised to make a deep run at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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