With a loaded NBA slate on tap, I’ve identified the top bets and player props to target for Wednesday’s action. The Cavaliers, Celtics, and Bucks headline a strong three-team moneyline parlay, while Keyonte George, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Nikola Jokic present intriguing player prop opportunities based on injury situations and matchup trends. Let’s break down the best plays of the night.
Best Bet: Cavaliers ML vs. Heat & Celtics ML vs. Blazers & Bucks ML vs. Mavericks (-129, BetMGM)
All three of these teams are heavy home favorites and it’s difficult not to like all three of them in these matchups. First, the Cavaliers own the NBA’s best home record at 28-4 SU (87.5%), the Celtics have been heating up at home, winning three of their last four with a 19-11 (63.3%) overall record at TD Garden and the Bucks have gone 21-9 SU (70%) in Milwaukee and take on the heavily-depleted Mavericks. All three of these teams are double-digit point favorites and I love the idea of simply parlaying their moneylines and just worrying about the outright wins.
Player Prop Pick: Jazz SG Keyonte George Over 21.5 Points vs. Wizards (-105, BetMGM)
Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and John Collins have all been ruled out for this matchup against the Wizards and in 209 minutes with those guys off the floor this season, George leads Utah with a 29.71% usage rate, a 4.83% bump. The Wizards allow 23.31 points per game to shooting guards (4th-most in the NBA) and the usage should be concentrated heavily around George, Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski and Kenyon Martin Jr. I don’t mind targeting multiple Utah players in this awesome matchup, but George is the guy I’m most confident in given his upside and presumed shot volume.
Player Prop Pick: Mavericks PG Spencer Dinwiddie Over 23.5 Points + Assists vs. Bucks (-110, BetMGM)
After Kyrie Irving’s catastrophic ACL injury, the Mavericks are absolutely decimated with injuries after trading away Luka Doncic, which still seems like a dream. Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington and Jaden Hardy are all out for this game, which means that Dinwiddie is essentially going to be the only point guard on the active roster. He’s averaged 14.4 points and 5.1 assists in 31.2 minutes across 19 starts so far this season, but this will essentially be his show to run and the offense should flow completely through him. Klay Thompson and Max Christie should see heavy usage as well and I’m fine targeting them too, but the spot is too great to ignore for Dinwiddie. The Bucks have allowed the most points per game to opposing point guards, which is why I want to include that aspect as well in this combo prop.
Player Prop Pick: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic Triple-Double vs. Kings (+100, BetMGM)
Jokic really, really likes facing Jonas Valanciunas. He’s posted triple-doubles in five of his last six head-to-head games against the big man and with Domantas Sabonis out, Valanciunas will start and face Joker’s wrath. Noticeably less nimble than he was in previous years, Valanciunas allowed Kai Jones to go for 21 points and eight rebounds last game and starting centers have crushed Sacramento recently; Alperen Sengun had 30 points and 10 rebounds and Walker Kessler went off for 25 points and 14 boards in the two games before that. Jokic has posted three consecutive triple-doubles against the Kings, including two this season: 35 points, 22 rebounds and 17 assists (January 23) and 20 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists (December 16). In those two games, he averaged 19 shot attempts, 23 rebounding chances and 17 potential assists, which highlighted his never-before-seen upside. I love this play.
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