Before the 2024-25 NBA season tipped off, four players had odds shorter than 10-1 to win MVP: Nikola Jokić (+450), Luka Dončić (+500), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+650), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+700). Fast forward to the final stretch of the season, and the race—at least according to the odds—looks like it’s nearly over.
SGA is now the overwhelming favorite at -550 on BetMGM, while Jokić sits at +350 as the only realistic challenger. If the current odds hold, it would mark SGA’s first MVP win, while Jokić—already a three-time winner (2021, 2022, 2024)—would come up just short of a fourth trophy.
The Case for SGA
Gilgeous-Alexander has been nothing short of sensational, carrying an extremely high 33.5% usage rate while maintaining elite efficiency. He’s posting a career-best 32.4 PPG on 52.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% from three, all while playing a key role on the league’s top-ranked defense.
His impact has translated directly into winning. The Thunder currently own the best record in the Western Conference and sit just 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league’s best mark. Leading an elite two-way team while putting up gaudy offensive numbers is the exact formula that has won MVPs in recent years.
The Case for Jokić
Jokić, however, is putting together a historic season himself. His 29.2 PPG and 10.4 APG are career highs, and he’s pulling down 12.8 RPG while averaging a triple-double on 50-40-80 shooting splits—which is just absurd. His offensive efficiency is arguably among the best we’ve ever seen, and his impact metrics back it up. Jokić leads the league in on/off rating (+20.3), compared to SGA’s +17.1.
If the Nuggets close strong and secure the No. 2 seed in the West, that could bolster Jokić’s case. But the reality is, OKC could still finish seven or eight games ahead of Denver, and that kind of gap would be hard for voters to ignore.
Who Will Win?
At this stage of the season, it’s going to take something drastic for Jokić to catch SGA. The MVP award has evolved into a recognition for the best player on one of the league’s top teams, having their best season yet. By that standard, SGA checks every box.
But if you strip away team success and focus solely on raw stats and individual value, Jokić has a compelling argument. He’s not just dominant—he’s historically dominant.
So, should SGA be the frontrunner? Absolutely. But should the odds gap between the two players be smaller? Without a doubt.
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