Thursday’s NBA slate is packed with value, and we’ve got three player props that stand out based on matchup trends and recent performances. Royce O’Neale has a dream spot against the Pelicans’ porous perimeter defense, Trey Murphy thrives in fast-paced games, and Klay Thompson could go off from beyond the arc against Charlotte. Let’s break down the best NBA player prop bets for February 27.
Suns PF Royce O’Neale Over 2.5 Made Threes vs. Pelicans (+110, BetMGM)
The Pelicans have allowed an NBA-high 25.2 wide-open three attempts (defender 6+ feet away) this month and have surrendered an NBA-high 2.76 made threes per game to opposing power forwards this season. No player in the entire NBA has seen more than O’Neale’s average of 5.1 wide open threes attempted per game and he’s made 2.1 of them, shooting 41.4% on those looks. Despite curiously only seeing 15 minutes against the Grizzlies last game, he went 3-for-4 from deep and has cleared this number in eight of his last 10 games overall. That matchup against Memphis was a great one for him (the Grizzlies have allowed the most made wide open threes this month) and this is just about as good as it gets as well since the Pels allow the most wide open volume from the perimeter. I’ll go right back to the well here at plus-money.
Pelicans SF Trey Murphy Over 21.5 Points vs. Suns (-120, BetMGM)
I think this is going to be a back-and-forth shootout. The Suns own the worst Defensive Rating in the entire NBA (121.9) this month and have surrendered an NBA-high 21.8 fastbreak points. Murphy ranks T12th in fastbreak points per game (6.0) and is averaging 22.2 points per game on the year. His volume is elite (17.7 shots per game, 8.2 three-point shots per game) and if you don’t like this, Zion Williamson over 23.5 points (-125) is another solid option. I like Murphy more at this number and price, though. If you play DFS, this is the best game to stack today, in my opinion.
Mavericks SF Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Made Threes vs. Hornets (+105, BetMGM)
How about a ceiling game for Thompson? The Hornets have allowed 25.1 wide-open three-point attempts (2nd-most in NBA) this month and Klay has cleared this number in four of his last five games while taking double-digit three-point attempts in three of those contests. As we’ve seen throughout his career, when given even an inch of space, Thompson can still hit threes and he’s proven that this month, shooting 40.3% from deep despite seeing the 9th-most tight defender (0-2 feet) attempts (2.2) per game. With no Anthony Davis and so many of his teammates hobbled with injuries, he will be needed to score alongside Kyrie Irving, even against a bad opponent.
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