Centers often provide the best value in the prop market due to their rebounding and scoring opportunities. Tonight, three big men stand out in favorable matchups: Andre Drummond should dominate the glass at MSG, Donovan Clingan has a prime opportunity for a double-double, and Domantas Sabonis is poised to rack up boards and assists against the Jazz. Let’s dive into the best plays for Wednesday night.
76ers C Andre Drummond Over 8.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks (-130, BetMGM)
With Joel Embiid and Guerschon Yabusele both out, Andre Drummond should draw the start against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden tonight, which intrigues me. As someone who grew up in Mount Vernon, NY, Drummond has loved playing at MSG throughout this career and has gone over this number in 17 of his last 18 games there despite playing backup minutes for quite a few of those contests (the one time he failed to go over, he had eight). With 13.4 boards on average in 42 career games against the Knicks, he has had 8.9 rebounds with Embiid out this season and in 449 minutes, he has led Philadelphia with a 22.36% rebound rate. You can make the argument that Drummond is the best rebounder in the history of the NBA and I expect him to show up under the bright lights of the Big Apple tonight. He will have to play as many minutes as he can handle to match up against Karl-Anthony Towns and his upside on the boards is immense. In 12 career games against KAT, he has also averaged 13.8 rebounds, which is another factor working in his favor.
Trail Blazers C Donovan Clingan Double-Double vs. Wizards (+210, BetMGM)
Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams are both out against the Wizards tonight, which puts rookie Donovan Clingan in the best possible matchup to produce as a starting center. Washington has allowed the most points (26.68) and 2nd-most rebounds (16.7) to opposing centers this year and has essentially gotten brutalized all year long by the position. As shown in his 17-point, 20-rebound performance against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets two weeks ago, when he gets substantial minutes, he can put up some impressive numbers. His points + rebounds prop is set at 18.5 (juiced to -150) and his rebounds prop alone is 10.5, so I’d rather bet his double-double at +210 and hope he gets to 10 and 10, which is very reasonable.
Kings C Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Jazz (+100, BetMGM)
I’m tempted to bet his triple-double at +750, but I’m going to try to double my money by betting over 20.5 rebounds + assists for Domantas Sabonis against the Jazz. Utah’s centers have allowed the most rebounds and assists to opposing players over the last 10 games and the Jazz as a whole have allowed the most assists (31.0) per game over that span. Even though he fell short with 18 and then 15 rebounds + assists over his last two meetings against Utah this season, he has averaged 20 rebounding chances and eight potential assists in those starts, which showcases his upside.
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