Monday’s NBA slate presents some intriguing opportunities in the player prop market, and I’ve locked in three of my favorite plays. Trae Young thrives on short rest, making his assist prop a strong target against Miami. Meanwhile, Josh Giddey’s recent three-point surge puts him in a prime spot against a Philadelphia defense that struggles to contain perimeter shooters. And finally, Domantas Sabonis should dominate the glass against a weak-rebounding Hornets squad. Let’s break down each pick and why the numbers back them up.
Hawks PG Trae Young Over 10.5 Assists vs. Heat (-115)
Death, taxes and me betting over Trae Young’s assists on the second half of a back-to-back: these are the only certainties in life. Young has dished out 14, 13 and 14 dimes in his last three games with no rest and has amassed 13 or more in six of nine such contests this season. The Heat allow the 5th-most assists per game to point guards and Young leads the NBA with both 11.4 assists and 21.0 potential assists per game. Coming off a 13-assist performance against the Pistons last night, I expect another big night for him from a facilitation perspective as he continues to search for help from his teammates after the front office gutted the roster before the deadline.
Bulls PG Josh Giddey Over 1.5 Made Threes vs. 76ers (+100)
Josh Giddey can shoot? What?! When did this happen? Very quietly, the Bulls PG has made multiple threes in seven of his last eight games in the month of February and is shooting a blistering 48.8% from deep this month (2.6 made threes on 5.4 attempted threes on average). The matchup can’t be better, either. The Sixers allow the most made threes per game (3.46) to opposing point guards and the types of threes they allow aligns perfectly with Giddey’s strength. This month, he has shot 46.7% on above-the-break threes (1.8 of 3.8 on average) and Philadelphia has allowed the third-highest shooting percentage from that area of the floor (40.2%) along with the third-most made threes (11.6) from that zone. While the Bulls are an afterthought as a team, this is a very important time for Giddey to showcase that he can be a point guard of the future, either in Chicago or elsewhere. Adding this facet of his game is essential and I expect him to be aggressive letting it rip from deep moving forward.
Kings C Domantas Sabonis Over 14.5 Rebounds vs. Hornets (-140)
I’m not quite sure how Domantas Sabonis wasn’t an All-Star because he’s putting up video game numbers for the Kings, but with Zach LaVine in town, he’s going to be relied upon less to score (with DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and LaVine as the focal points) and more to rebound. He’s gone over this rebounding number in four of his last five games, racking up 17.6 on 28.4 rebounding chances on average, both of which led the NBA by a wide margin. The Hornets have allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers and have the second-worst rebounding chance percentage (54.3%), so I’m very high on Sabonis’ potential on the glass in this one.
Late Additions
Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists vs. Nuggets (-135, BetMGM)
Timberwolves PF Naz Reid Over 19.5 Points vs. Thunder (-110, BetMGM)
Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Points & 10+ Rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-120, BetMGM)
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