Heat ML at Mavericks (-120)
You have to give some credit to the shorthanded Mavericks for getting that huge upset win over the Golden State Warriors last night. Despite missing almost all of their frontcourt players like Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington, they managed to beat the Warriors straight up as a +7.5 underdog. Due to this, I imagine there is going to be a good amount of people who will back them tonight against a Miami team that has lost three in a row.
However, Miami is going to want to get a win before the All-Star break. Their last two losses have come to the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, but this is going to be a huge step down in class from those two teams. Dallas will have just a single player that stands taller than 6-foot-8 available to play for them in this game, as all of their bigs remain out with injury.
I don’t know who is going to guard Bam Adebayo in the paint. He should be unstoppable down there, and I expect them to get him the ball in abundance. I think the Heat are undervalued here after three straight losses, and the Mavs are maybe a bit overrated. I’ll take Miami at a short number to get the win tonight as the post Jimmy Butler era moves on.
Clippers at Jazz Over 225 (-115)
These two teams have easily gone over their listed total line in their last two games against each other, including LA’s 130-110 win over this same Utah team last weekend where 240 combined points were scored. That game was lined at 226 at close, and soared over like a hang glider in Rio. Clippers games in general have been very high-scoring affairs, and the over has now cashed in three straight Clippers games, with combined scores of 242, 240, and 231. In their last seven games, the over has hit in six of them.
Back on December 16, these two teams combined for 251 points when they played each other, also easily eclipsing the closing line total of 221.5. The over has also hit now in five straight Utah games, with combined scores of 250, 245, 240, 262, and 259 points in that span. None of them have been even close to an under, and there is very little reason to think that these two defenses will suddenly get better overnight.
I’ll take the over here at 225 points, as both teams have been scoring and allowing a boatload of points as of late and for most of the season.
Thunder -7.5 at Timberwolves (-110)
Both the Thunder and the Timberwolves played last night, and since the Thunder are the ones that have to travel here, I think we are getting a slight discount on them. The line has already moved toward them here, from 6.5 to 7.5, so take it before it gets even higher. Chet Holmgren may be back from injury for this game, however, his minutes are likely going to be restricted pretty heavily before the All-Star break.
I think Oklahoma City wants to enter the break on a high-note, and just add to their 44-9 record. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible this season for OKC, putting on an MVP caliber campaign. He’s averaging 32.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Historically, he has absolutely dominated Minnesota. He’s gone over his 31.5 points prop line in eight of his last nine games played against them, including a 40 point performance earlier this season.
I think he goes off here again, and the Thunder are able to go into the break with a very impressive 45 wins on the year. They were my pick to win the NBA Championship before the season, and they have really made my +750 ticket look great ever since.