With conference tournaments just around the corner, every game matters as teams fight for seeding and momentum heading into March Madness. Wednesday’s slate features key matchups, including a tricky line in Tennessee vs. Ole Miss, a sharp side in UConn vs. Marquette, and a player prop worth targeting in Florida vs. Alabama. Let’s dive into the best bets and angles for tonight’s action.
Best Bet: #4 Tennessee -1.5 at Ole Miss (-115, BetMGM)
I am taking a huge risk here, and this one is not for the faint of heart. I’m banking on this being a fake sharp line, which can be very hard to judge.
Tennessee is off a huge win over Alabama and is ranked No. 4 in the country, and now heads on the road to take on an unranked Ole Miss team with the spread at just -1.5. However, the Vols have really had issues covering the spread as of late. They have failed to cover in four of their last five games, and I think generally, they have not played as dominantly as you might think a No. 4 ranked team should.
On the other side, Ole Miss has had an even tougher time. They have lost three of their last four games and have failed to cover in five straight games, so again, I don’t see everyone loving them either.
The one thing that leads me to think this could be a fake sharp line is the team total for Ole Miss. It is sitting at just 67.5 right now, which is actually a very notable number. They haven’t gone under this number in five straight games, and are even coming off a game against Oklahoma where they scored 87 points.
I’ll take the chance here with Tennessee, but I understand if you want to avoid that or even take Ole Miss. Very scary one to be sure.
Best Bet: UConn -3.5 vs. #20 Marquette (-112, BetMGM)
This has not been the season that Dan Hurley wanted after back to back championships, but you can never count the Huskies out, and I think they get a huge win tonight at home.
Marquette is ranked No. 20 in the nation, but this is a team that has shown plenty of vulnerabilities this season. They have won four of their last five games, and did cover in their last two games at large spread lines, which is why I think they could be overvalued here. They crushed Providence and Georgetown, but UConn will be a very different monster at home.
The Huskies are 20-9 so far and unranked, but they have a chance to get back into the rankings with a win here. They have won two straight headed into this, but they have really struggled to cover spreads. They have failed to cover in four of their last five games, and have only covered three in their last 10.
Marquette has been terrible at covering as a dog, with a 1-4 ATS record while getting points, and also an identical SU record in those spots. There is a reason they are an underdog as the ranked team, and I think this is a sharp line.
Player Prop: Florida G Walter Clayton Jr. Over 17.5 Points vs. Alabama (-115, BetMGM)
We have a huge matchup tonight when Florida travels to take on Alabama in a top-10 showdown. The Crimson Tide are a small -3.5 favorite at home against the Gators, and I’m taking a look at a superstar guard to go over his point total tonight.
Nope, it isn’t Mark Sears, but Walter Clayton to go over 17.5 points. Alabama’s defense leaves a lot to be desired among the top teams in the nation, which they counter with a great offense. Florida is one of my favorite teams in the country, and we took them at 10/1 to win the National Championship, a lot of it having to do with how dynamic their backcourt is.
Clayton is a bonafide superstar that is built for March. His ability to score in many different ways makes him special, and his defense at the point is also underrated. He’s averaging just under this at 16.8 on the season, but has only gone over this line in two of his last five games. He’s coming off a game in which he scored just 10 points against Texas A&M, which I think will turn people off.
This seems like a game where he sets the tone and dominates against a lackluster defense.
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