With the college basketball season heating up, Tuesday’s slate presents a mix of intriguing matchups, sharp betting lines, and potential trap spots. We’re diving into three key games—Illinois vs. Wisconsin, Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M, and BYU vs. Kansas—to identify where the value lies.
From Illinois looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Mississippi State potentially being a trap favorite, here’s a breakdown of the best bets for Tuesday, February 18.
Illinois (17-9) +4 at #11 Wisconsin (20-5)
The Fighting Illini will head out on the road north to Wisconsin, where the red-hot Badgers await them. Illinois is coming off a loss to Michigan State at home, a game in which they got out to nearly a 20-point lead and blew it, something that can just never happen in your own building. The team is 2-2 in their last four games, but just got dealt a pretty substantial blow with the news that Morez Johnson Jr. has a broken wrist and is out indefinitely. While he isn’t a starter, he is a key piece off the bench that provides size for a fairly small team.
On the other side, Wisconsin is flying on cloud nine right now. They have won four straight games, defeating Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, and just took down Purdue in their own building. It has been an incredibly impressive stretch of games where the team has been firing on all cylinders. However, I think we have gotten to the point where it is time to start thinking about selling high on them. I find this spread to be a bit short of where I would have expected it to be at just -4.
For instance, Illinois was a -6.5 favorite at home against Michigan State in their last game. Coming off a bad loss like that where they lost a key depth piece, and now having to travel to Wisconsin to take on a hot Badgers team off a road win against Purdue, you would think this spread would be higher. To me, it feels like the oddsmakers are trying to throw some bait out there. I think Illinois will keep this close, and possibly even win the game outright.
#21 Mississippi State (18-7) -125 ML vs. # 7 Texas A&M (20-5)
Here is another example of the oddsmakers dangling a carrot on a string for people to grab on to. Texas A&M is ranked No. 7 in the nation and has one of the best players in the country suiting up for them in Wade Taylor lV. They have won five straight games, including matchups against Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, and Arkansas. They have covered the spread in three straight games coming into this contest as well, and are 15-8-2 ATS and 20-5 overall this season.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has lost three of their last five games. They are coming off a win against Ole Miss where they covered the +3.5 spread, but overall they have struggled over the last week or so. They got blown out by Florida and Missouri at home, and lost a close contest to Alabama as well. They have a one-point win against Georgia in that span too.
Considering that the Aggies are ranked No. 7 in the country and have won five straight, and are now underdogs in this game against a team that has lost three of five, this seems like a very obvious trap. Most people would look at these two teams and think the Bulldogs have no business being favorites against A&M, so they take the plus money with them. I think that is bait, and I won’t fall for it.
BYU (17-8) -3 vs. #23 Kansas (17-8)
This is a slightly different scenario than what I just talked about, but still seems like some bait for bettors when you look at the line. Kansas has lost three of their last five games, but they are still Kansas, and they are still ranked. The Jayhawks are coming off a terrible loss to Utah on the road, a game in which they were a -6.5 favorite and lost outright. In fact, they are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games, and 10-14-1 ATS this season overall. The biggest issue with this team is that they can’t score, and they haven’t put up more than 73 points in their last five.
BYU is unranked, and yet they are a -3 favorite at home against No. 23 in the nation. I know the Jayhawks have struggled, but a lot of people will just see a number in front of a team, and automatically assume they are better. The Cougars have won and covered in two straight, and in three of their last five. They are 14-11 ATS, and off a very impressive win against a red-hot Kansas State team.
I feel like there is a reason that the Cougars are this big of a favorite against Kansas, and I’ll back them here to get a massive win for their program tonight.
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