The college basketball weekend opens with just seven games on Friday. Luckily, there are some absolute bangers on the schedule, including an old-school Big East rivalry between two ranked teams. Even with just seven games on the schedule, we picked out a few betting lines that we’re backing on Friday night.
USC (13-9) at #7 Purdue (18-5)
The Boilermakers are rolling, winning 10 of their last 11 games since a loss to Auburn right before Christmas. Purdue is 8-3 against the spread during that stretch with those three ATS losses coming in the three games that had the biggest spread. Obviously, that’s a little concerning, especially with a straight-up home loss to Ohio State during that stretch. However, five of Purdue’s 10 wins during that span came by at least 18 points, so the Boilermakers can overpower weaker teams. With wins over Illinois and Michigan State, the Trojans are far from the worst that the Big Ten has to offer. But they’ve also been frustratingly inconsistent, which is why we’re leaning toward the Boilermakers at home in this matchup.
Pick: Purdue -13.5.
VCU (18-5) at Dayton (16-7)
The Atlantic-10 might not be a multi-bid league, but there are some great teams in this conference, including VCU and Dayton. The Flyers have wins over UConn and Marquette this season and have won five of their last six games. Also, a pair of losses to North Carolina and Iowa State came by a total of just seven points, so there’s no doubt that Dayton has talent. Of course, this VCU team is also the real deal, as the Rams have won eight of their last nine games, going 6-3 against the spread during that stretch. However, three of VCU’s five losses this season have come in true road games, which has been their Achilles heel. To be fair, those losses have all come against quality teams. But since we have to count the Flyers as a quality team, it’s worth taking a flier on Dayton’s moneyline Friday night.
Pick: Dayton ML.
#12 St. John’s at #19 UConn
It’s a little surprising to see the oddsmakers sticking with UConn as a home favorite in this game. The Huskies are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games, which means the oddsmakers have drastically overrated them. However, a road win against Marquette last weekend could be what the Huskies need to get back on track. Plus, UConn’s last eight games have come without freshman Liam McNeely, who is expected to return to the court on Friday. Of course, the Red Storm currently sits atop the Big East standings at 11-1 in conference play. St. John’s only blemish in league play is a one-point road loss to Creighton. But they could be facing UConn at the wrong time, as the Huskies are getting back to full strength and should have some confidence. A road in Storrs on a Friday night seems like the appropriate time to fade the Red Storm despite their dominance in the Big East this season.
Pick: UConn -3.
Utah State (20-3) at Fresno State (5-18)
Just by looking at the records of these two teams, it’s clear this is a mismatch. Just a week into February, Utah State has 20 wins. The Aggies just don’t have enough quality wins to earn a spot in the top 25. The other caveat is that Utah State is just 2-7 against the spread since the start of January. They also beat Fresno State by just six points as a 24-point favorite earlier this season. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have just one win since the middle of December. Despite some success at keeping games competitive, Fresno State has lost against the spread in four straight road games. The Bulldogs lost by over 20 points in three of those four games, which points to a quality Mountain West team like Utah State being able to blow them out.
Pick: Utah State -12.5.
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