Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners, and there is no reason that we should have ended last week 2-3. If Kentucky could inbound a basketball or if Texas A&M could put a team away, we’d have had a positive week. Shoot, we would have had a very positive week. But, that’s gambling. We have less than two weeks before the Mid-Majors start their conference tournaments, so it’s time to start forming our final opinions on teams. Who are the potential giant killers? Who are the underrated teams? Who are the overrated teams? And of course, who can legitimately win the NCAA Tournament? This weekend, we will be betting on the big name teams in the big conferences, but definitely start tuning into the smaller conference games. There is money to be made if you know what you are looking for. Enough looking ahead, let’s get into the picks.
#6 Tennessee (21-5) at #7 Texas A&M (20-6)
Texas A&M is a college basketball team that is living off of their defense, which makes sense in college basketball. No offense is perfect in college basketball and the teams that have success in the tournament are typically built around their defense. Just look at UConn in the two previous years. The problem with the Aggies, though, is that they rely too much on their defense. Right now, they have a top 5 defense in the country, but an offense that doesn’t even rank in the top 50! They can go through stretches where the ball just won’t go through the hoop, keeping their opponents in games that the Aggies should dominate. That will be a problem when A&M faces Tennessee on Saturday. Not only do the Volunteers have a better defense (No. 1 in the country), they also have a better offense, too (ranked 29th in the country). Tennessee is a better version of Texas A&M and they are going to prove that on Saturday.
Tennessee: -1.5.
#8 Iowa State (21-5) at #5 Houston (22-4)
This game is set up very similarly to the previous game. Two teams that are strong defensively, but in this game, both Iowa State and Houston are stronger offensively than either Texas A&M or Tennessee. Which should lead to a more exciting game. Iowa State is strong defensively (10th in the country), but Houston is stronger (3rd in the country). Iowa State has a solid offense (18th in the country), but Houston is better (7th in the country). Iowa State is a very good team, but Houston is an elite team. I expect this to be a back and forth game that Houston pulls out in the end. Houston is the better team, just look at the numbers.
Houston: -7.5.
#17 Kentucky (18-8) at #4 Alabama (21-5)
In this game expect points, points, and even more points to be scored. Both Kentucky and Alabama have top 5 offenses according to KenPom, and both are in the top 40 when it comes to tempo. That means that both teams are going to play fast and get up a lot of shots. Now, I’ve watched enough of both teams this year to know that the looks they are going to get offensively are going to be quality looks. I expect both teams to score a ton of points in this game and to get into a shoot out. Those are always the most fun games to watch anyways.
Over: 177.5.
#3 Duke (23-3) at Illinois (17-10)
Unfortunately for the Duke haters out there, the Blue Devils are really good this year. Most of the experts have Duke as the second most likely team to win it all this year behind Auburn, and they should be. Duke has the 2nd-best offense in the country and the 4th best defense! Their only issue is the competition that they have faced. This is not a strong year for the ACC, and Blue Devils have not really been tested. Enter Illinois and the Big 10. Illinois will be a real test for Duke. Illinois has an offense ranked in the top 20 and a defense ranked in the top 40. Illinois is an all-around strong team. I think Duke will pass this challenge with flying colors and show all of the haters how good they are when they face quality competition.
Duke: -10.5.
BYU (18-8) at #19 Arizona (18-8)
This is going to be a fun late night game. Two Big 12 teams that are not afraid of anyone. It should be a close back and forth game. Appointment TV. In this game, I am going to do the risky thing and back Arizona. I think BYU will still be riding high from their victory over Kansas this week and will run out of gas late in this game. BYU beating Kansas is huge for this program, the type of victory that the Cougars will cherish. Unfortunately, games like that usually lead to a let down in their next game. That’s exactly what I expect. Good week day win, BYU. Unfortunately, I don’t see a sweep this week.
Arizona: -7.5.
Conclusion
We literally have less than two weeks until conference tournaments begin and we have to be ready. Use the next two weeks as a warm up and a build up of your bankroll before March. Think about it, the athletes don’t just go out onto the court and play basketball. They have to stretch first, and so do we as gamblers. These bets are our version of stretching. Good luck my friends.
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