We’ve got a crop of college basketball games on today’s slate to bet on and our staff has found our best bets just for you for these games!
Dan Karpuc: #2 Florida -15.5 vs. Oklahoma (-110, BetMGM)
Checking in at 22-3 SU, Florida is an obvious home favorite against Oklahoma (16-9) and the Gators have gone an outstanding 16-5 ATS (76.2% cover rate) as a favorite this season, which is the best mark in the nation. Florida has covered four consecutive times and has also gone 11-4 ATS on their home floor at Stephen C. O’Connell Center. The Sooners are headed in the opposite direction, losing four consecutive games outright while failing to cover all of them as well. UF ranks 4th in KenPom’s overall rankings, including 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency while Oklahoma comes in at 44th overall, including 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 66th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Gators also rank 4th in NET Rating while the Sooners rank 52nd in that regard. Overall, Oklahoma’s lack of efficiency, proneness to committing fouls and high turnover percentage should haunt them as an inferior underdog in their first-ever trip to Gainesville.
Lucy Burdge: #13 Michigan State -3.5 vs. #14 Purdue (-110, BetMGM)
Michigan State just beat Illinois and they are 20-5 overall and 11-3 in Big Ten play this season. Purdue also has lost their last two games. Michigan State has covered in three of their last four games at home and in two of their last three overall and Purdue is coming off of not covering. So I like Michigan State to cover here against Purdue.
Matt Horner: Illinois +4 at #11 Wisconsin (-110, BetMGM)
The Fighting Illini will head out on the road north to Wisconsin, where the red-hot Badgers await them. Illinois is coming off a loss to Michigan State at home, a game in which they got out to nearly a 20-point lead and blew it, something that can just never happen in your own building. The team is 2-2 in their last four games, but just got dealt a pretty substantial blow with the news that Morez Johnson Jr. has a broken wrist and is out indefinitely. While he isn’t a starter, he is a key piece off the bench that provides size for a fairly small team.
On the other side, Wisconsin is flying on cloud nine right now. They have won four straight games, defeating Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, and just took down Purdue in their own building. It has been an incredibly impressive stretch of games where the team has been firing on all cylinders. However, I think we have gotten to the point where it is time to start thinking about selling high on them. I find this spread to be a bit short of where I would have expected it to be at just -4.
For instance, Illinois was a -6.5 favorite at home against Michigan State in their last game. Coming off a bad loss like that where they lost a key depth piece, and now having to travel to Wisconsin to take on a hot Badgers team off a road win against Purdue, you would think this spread would be higher. To me, it feels like the oddsmakers are trying to throw some bait out there. I think Illinois will keep this close, and possibly even win the game outright.
Kate Constable: #13 Purdue at #14 Michigan State Under 148.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Both of these offenses are pretty elite, but so are their defenses. MSU is No. 8 in opponent 3-point percentage, limiting them to just 28.9%. That’s going to be a big part of keeping this score low because Purdue is shooting 37.7%, which is good enough for 26th in the nation. Meanwhile, the Spartans have been terrible from outside this season, ranking 353rd out of 364 teams. In their most recent game against Illinois, MSU only attempted 12 shots from beyond the arc and instead opted to attack the basket. I expect that to be the case against tonight, which will also help keep this game lower scoring.
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