The back-to-back NCAA Tournament champion UConn Huskies entered the 2024-25 season with sky-high expectations and hopes of pulling off a rare three-peat. Oddsmakers agreed with the hype too, listing UConn at +1200 to win it all before the season tipped off—trailing only Duke and Kansas, who opened as co-favorites at +1100.
Fast forward to the final week of the regular season, and it’s been a different story. The Huskies' title odds have taken a nosedive, now sitting at +6000, putting them in the same range as teams like Clemson and Purdue. Despite the dramatic shift, UConn remains one of BetMGM’s biggest liabilities, likely due to the heavy backing it received when the season began.
With just two games left in the regular season, Dan Hurley’s squad holds a 20-9 record, placing fourth in the Big East. As things stand, they’re projected to be a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament—though that could shift depending on how they finish out the season and perform in the conference tournament.
Despite their championship pedigree and Hurley’s experience on the big stage, UConn isn’t a team I’d rush to bet on at 60-1.
For one, history isn’t on their side. If the Huskies do end up as an 8-seed, they’ll be fighting an uphill battle. Only one No. 8 seed has ever won the national championship—Villanova’s 1985 upset over Georgetown.
More importantly, the advanced metrics don’t paint a pretty picture. UConn sits outside the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, a glaring red flag given that 91% of national champions since 2001 had a top-31 defense heading into the tournament, per College Basketball Report.
On top of that, the Huskies have struggled with ball security, ranking 177th in turnover percentage.
Hurley himself has acknowledged this team has more flaws than his past two title squads. He’s openly talked about how he has to coach this group differently and has pointed out the matchup issues they’ve faced—something that wasn’t a problem during their championship runs. Depth is another concern, further stacking the odds against them.
Could the Huskies pull off a miracle run? Sure, but it would take a near Herculean effort. Given their struggles, the historical trends, and the red flags in their statistical profile, I won’t be backing them to cut down the nets for a third straight year.
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