On Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre, Detroit Tigers veteran Miguel Cabrera became the 28th player in major league history to hit 500 career home runs. Baseball fans should appreciate Cabrera's shining moment, because it's going to be a while until the prestigious club adds another member.
Next on the active home run list is 41-year old slugger Nelson Cruz, with 443. The Tampa Bay Rays' veteran is on pace to finish the 2021 campaign with 33 dingers, which would put him at around 450 by season's end. If Cruz can stay healthy, he'll likely break the magical number at either age 43 or 44. But keep in mind, there isn't a single batter in today's game over 41. Next on the list is 38-year-old Robinson Cano, at 334, but his odds of accomplishing the feat are slim to none.
The only player within distance of 500 homers who falls into the "maybe" category is Giancarlo Stanton. The 31-year-old is on pace to finish with 25 jacks this season, which would put up him at 337 total. Again, if he can stay healthy through his 30s, he should be able to break the 500 threshold. After Stanton, the next three guys on the active list are Justin Upton, Joey Votto, and Evan Longoria. If you were to project their numbers, they'd all be well past age 40 before reaching the 500 homer mark. These sluggers fall into the category of "very unlikely."
Los Angeles Angels superstar outfielder Mike Trout (310) is the only player within 200 homers who should be considered probable to reach 500. If he stays relatively healthy and there's no dip in his performance, he could join the club around 2028. It's also worth noting that this would be a seven-year gap from when Cabrera dinged his 500th. Prior to Cabrera's historic blast, the last player to reach 500 was David Ortiz, who accomplished the feat in 2015. It's possible that within a 12-year timeframe, only one player will reach this milestone. Quite the contrast from what we saw during the early 2000s.
Reaching 500 homers has become much more special, as there were plenty of players who used performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) during the late 1990s and early 2000s. But let's examine the numbers. In 1961, Roger Maris hit an MLB record (at the time) 61 homers -- it took 37 years for that season-single record to be broken. Mark McGwire obliterated that mark in 1998, finishing the campaign with 70. Since 2002, not one player has touched 62.
It’s no coincidence that McGwire eventually admitted to steroid use. Sammy Sosa was another star who surpassed 61 homers during the 1998-2001 window. During the early 2000s, the New York Times reported that Sosa tested positive for PEDs. Barry Bonds has the single-season record for home runs -- he hit 73 back in 2001 -- and his name was mentioned in the BALCO scandal. It's no accident that from 1999 to 2009, ten individuals reached the 500 homer mark.
What makes Cabrera's accomplishment so special is that he's never been linked to PEDs. For the first 130 years of MLB, only 15 players were able to claim that they hit 500-plus homers. Over the next 12 years, ten more names joined the list. In the last 12 years, the number has dwindled down to three. This Hall of Fame benchmark is once again in rarefied air, and fans should celebrate Cabrera's magic.
CBS Sports Radio producer David Shepard is a former ESPN researcher, a former Division I college basketball practice player, and the host of The Good Shepard YouTube channel. Follow him on Twitter @TheGoodShepard_.